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Yay, another conflict!
this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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Thankfully most signs are that the PLA is targeting having a force capable of credible cross strait operations in 2027, so we still have at least three years. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the US all know this and have been spending the last two plus years reshaping thier militaries to be capable of directly opposing such an act, and in doing so it is become pretty clear that any cross strait action is only going to end in a lot of CCP ships on the bottom and a good fiscal year for Lockheed Martin.
In doing so it makes it vanishingly unlikely that it will actually move beyond posturing in the first place. Unlike in Ukraine where the West has committed to supporting and resupplying the victim, many of the Asia Pacific Nations are committed to providing active military operations in defense of Taiwan.
That being said there is still to my knowledge no Asia Pacific equivalent to NATO Article 5 unfortunately, which may result in dangerous doubt in terms of credible deterrence, especially if the CCP believes it has friends that will quietly bow to it in Tokyo and Washington in 2027. For all of Trump’s shouting, most of his actual actions involvedo withdrawing the US from everything he could that China didn’t like.
While still unlikely, credible deterrence still requires the Chinese Intelligence both believe and be good enough at handling bad news to accurately report that up the chain of command, and as the FSB demonstrated in Ukraine that’s not necessarily a given. If there are enough yes men, then things could get very bad indeed.
Chinese Intelligence both believe and be good enough at handling bad news to accurately report that up the chain of command
There is some evidence that supports subordinates telling ξι such bad news to be unlikely.
Especially in China. That's a place where it's not uncommon for very high ranking members of the government/party/major companies and public figures disappearing for months on time if not indefinitely. If it can happen to those people, it can happen to bearers of bad news much further down the line. Not to mention, Xi has been busy purging anyone who even looks remotely competent/threatening (same thing, really) for a while now in the very old-fashioned sense of the word, which isn't exactly conductive to a smooth running state either.
Taking over a country that'll put up substantial resistance without destroying the infrastructure... I'm sure it'll go exactly as planned. /s
China is stumbling towards an invasion the same way they stumbled their way into and through COVID. The consequences of this dangerous ineptness will be similar for the world.
I think Xi is counting on the west to be too distracted by Ukraine and Israel to effectively support Taiwan.
Also, speculation on my part - but this feels like the usual posturing/distraction playbook. China’s economy isn’t doing so hot and the government’s bungling of COVID is still fresh in everyone’s minds, so what better way to make people forget about that than to saber rattle?
People were saying the same about Russia before he invaded Ukraine. The moment we see a buildup of troops at the coast near Taiwan, the countdown to the invasion is ticking down. I do not think it's a matter of if, but when. Could be this year already. I do not believe that the so-called PLA is even remotely capable of successfully conquering Taiwan, since they have zero experience with any kind of complex military operation (least of which any combined arms and naval landings, let alone the most challenging one in military history), but I think the end result will still be an enormous amount of destruction and suffering, as well as a major and long-lasting economic crisis.
@detectivemittens I may sound like a broken plate but I think it's precisely the situation in Ukraine that is giving them hopes. Had the US not put on hold that package for Ukraine, the Chinese could have simply taken a more moderate stance towards Taiwan. By doing what it did, yea, as you said, the US showed its weakness in providing its allies and partners with the required military help.
The arrangement with Taiwan is different though. A war between the two Chinas would see direct US involvement, not just the sending over of old weapons that are well past their expiration date.
Isn't Taiwan like the largest supplier of lithium? I imagine every country will fight tooth and nail for their resources.
No, Taiwan is not a producer of lithium. It does however host the leading and most important semiconductor fabs in the world. A war would have catastrophic consequences, given that everyone depends on chips from the island nation.
Ah yes the semiconductors! Yeah I imagine the world would do whatever they can to keep China from having control over semiconductors.
Sure, it's inevitable. China is so great and prosperous that one day the people of Taiwan will see reason and enthusiastically petition to join it. This will obviously happen some day, so there's no need to do anything but sit back and wait for it, President Xi.
I agree, west Taiwan will eventually fall back into the hands of the people in Taiwan. And the country will be whole again.
On a timescale of hundreds of years? He’s probably right. Empires come and go, borders change.
Within his own lifetime? Doubtful.
Is this a preview of 2024? I don't like it!