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this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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I think Xi is counting on the west to be too distracted by Ukraine and Israel to effectively support Taiwan.
Also, speculation on my part - but this feels like the usual posturing/distraction playbook. China’s economy isn’t doing so hot and the government’s bungling of COVID is still fresh in everyone’s minds, so what better way to make people forget about that than to saber rattle?
People were saying the same about Russia before he invaded Ukraine. The moment we see a buildup of troops at the coast near Taiwan, the countdown to the invasion is ticking down. I do not think it's a matter of if, but when. Could be this year already. I do not believe that the so-called PLA is even remotely capable of successfully conquering Taiwan, since they have zero experience with any kind of complex military operation (least of which any combined arms and naval landings, let alone the most challenging one in military history), but I think the end result will still be an enormous amount of destruction and suffering, as well as a major and long-lasting economic crisis.
@detectivemittens I may sound like a broken plate but I think it's precisely the situation in Ukraine that is giving them hopes. Had the US not put on hold that package for Ukraine, the Chinese could have simply taken a more moderate stance towards Taiwan. By doing what it did, yea, as you said, the US showed its weakness in providing its allies and partners with the required military help.
@DdCno1
The arrangement with Taiwan is different though. A war between the two Chinas would see direct US involvement, not just the sending over of old weapons that are well past their expiration date.
@DdCno1 I hope so as well