this post was submitted on 16 Dec 2023
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Politics
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The warning signs were there in 2008 and Trump saw that undercurrent. He’s leaning full force, this is undeniably now mask off with the rhetoric.
He’s also consistently far and away leading the Republican primary polling, even if he was convicted. The general election data isn’t a slam dunk for democracy either.
Primary polling outside of exit polls is nonsense. How are you going to collect unbiased sample when Trump voters are some of the loudest and most obnoxious people on the planet? You can't put a filter on their enthusiasm because it's consistently and directly correlated with their voting habits. So how do you control for enthusiasm bias in getting respondent participation while targeting the information the enthusiasm is related to?
You don't. You can't. You ignore it and publish bullshit.