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JWST Spots Giant Black Holes All Over the Early Universe | Quanta Magazine
(www.quantamagazine.org)
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With all due respect to Penrose – who is indisputably brilliant – in probability when you start to say things like, "X is
10^10^100
times more likely than Y," it's actually much more likely that there's some flaw in your priors or your model of the system than that such a number is actually reflective of reality.That's true even for really high probability things. Like if I were to claim that it's
10^10^100
times more likely that the sun will rise tomorrow than that it won't, then I would have made much too strong a claim. It's doubly true for things like the physics of the early universe, where we know our current laws are at best an incomplete description.I think what's also great with Penrose is that he doesn't care about money or politics, which are major factors guiding what other physicists will say.
He already proved himself and doesn't need to argue about pity things. He can even allow himself to make some jokes about
10^(10^100)
or talk seriously about it... I wouldn't know.Finally, if I add the immense chance of talking to him this wouldn't be my preferred topic.