this post was submitted on 30 Jul 2023
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Sort of like the war in Afghanistan. It'll go on for a very long time
Russia's committing way more resources into this conflict than they ever did for previous similar operations though. Ukraine is claiming they killed/wounded over 200000 Russian soldiers. That's not anywhere near comparable to previous post WWII conflicts.
that is, 0.6% of the total number of people who can be drafted into the army.
The current political regime is not particularly concerned about military losses. even if we take into account the 2 million Russians who left, 200,000 people still make up about 1% of the number of conscripts. Even if we assume that half of them will somehow manage to escape from the Ministry of Defense, 15 million people can still be called up into the army.
You can call a lot of people, but the reality is that the Russian army gradually shifts from trained soldiers with tanks and artillery to Igor with a gun.
Their losses will skyrocket the moment they can't provide sufficient counter-battery fire and air defence for their troops anymore.
the Russian army has never been well trained. Almost the entire composition of the army below the officers are forcibly conscripted civilians. the number of contractors is ridiculously small.
the Russian army has never been contracted. And a year of training of a forcibly conscripted person always gives approximately the same result.
UPD: if we lived in the world of starcraft, Russia would undoubtedly be Zerg. In general, the command and tactics are applied accordingly - a swarm of Zerg. I am generally surprised that conscripts are at least given weapons.
when I served in the army on universal conscription for 2.5 years of compulsory conscription many, years ago, I fired from a machine gun about 2 times. This is the average level of training of a Russian soldier.
You can't really send every man able to hold a gun directly to the front without your economy completely collapsing. Even 1% of your abled men being suddenly dead is very serious in terms of the economy. Plus all the injured coming home from the war now suddenly being a burden rather than a productive asset to your economy.
Definitely not good for either country
Well, that's right. But already now the business is starting to hire women more willingly than men who can conscripted. And just recently, a law was passed that those who could refuse the draft after entering the institute would still serve after the institute. Government introduced new much stricter laws against draft evasion. Look like preparation for the beginning of mobilization.
This number takes into account every men from the age bracket 15 to to 55, according to rosstat numbers. https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Bul_chislen_nasel-pv_01-01-2022.pdf
This assumes a lot given that realistically there is no real way to know how many people are really living there. This is absolutely not the number of people who are eligible to be conscripted.
By the contract, a person of any age can now be called up until the rifle falls out of his hands. So it's even less than it could theoretically be required. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/28/05/2022/6291e8e79a7947008579486b
In the Russian Federation, the same resolution on conscripts can be issued one day at any time.
True, technically the Russian government proclaims that everyone who can stand straight for a moment is a potential recruit. But if the previous mogilisation attempts showed us something, that even the most loyal putin's dogs would prefer making war efforts from the comfort of their own homes.
I don't have anything other than gut feelings after extensive reading of telegram channels to base this on, but my personal estimation that they could probably get another half of a million of meatbags or so, but after that the whole shit will just collapse in on itself.
I think not. the regime is very slow to advance its interests, and you don't have time to look back, because 7 years have passed, and everyone has served at least a year in a hot spot.
For example. Mobilization has begun. People were outraged. Everyone was shown on TV how Putin promises that they will not demand more. What we really have: no one has canceled the mobilization on paper. Mobilization orders are coming in, only slowly, so as not to cause unrest. Contractors cannot quit after the contract expires, as mobilization and military operations seem to be continuing. For greater security, they began to send out mobilization orders through state websites, so as not to run after those who are runs away from the military commissariat. And if he did not show up, then he is deprived of his driver's license and credit rating. But I don't see any dissatisfaction.
And so it is everywhere.
Yeah, but that's not how you conscript all the people in one go, that's how you slowly suck the life out of your country by methodically killing small amount of people with relentless consistency. You can't use this slow boiling method to conscript hundreds of thousands of people, let alone millions, and the moment you try, the system shits itself.
I didn't mean that 30 million people would go to the front in a single rush. I suspect that at least half of them will hide from the army in all possible ways. Nevertheless, I cannot imagine a situation where slow replenishment of the reserve will not help. If only for months there will be hot battles every day with thousands of dead.