this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2023
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The Kerch Bridge connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian military is heavily dependent on the rail link that crosses it to supply the illegally occupied territory in southern Ukraine. It's not currently clear how it was hit and to what extent it was damaged.

I suspect Russia is probably going to use this as a pretext to refuse to renew the Black Sea grain deal that expires today.

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If Ukraine is ever going to take Crimea back from Russia, the destruction of this bridge is critical. There are certainly going to be more and more headlines like this in the future. The next steps for Ukraine are to cut off resupply lines to Crimea in the north through Mariupol/Melitopol and to destroy the Kerch bridge in the south. After that they will be able to lay siege on the occupying forces garrisoned on the Crimean peninsula to whittle down their supplies prior to crossing at Perekop.