this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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So reading twitter...
It seems much of the "Ammunition shortage" Prigozhin was loudly complaining about was stock pilling. Similarly much of Wagnar was pulled out of Ukraine to rebuild.
There have been suggestions Prigozhin was planning to launch an attack on Sunday but the Russian MoD attacked a Wagner site forcing him to launch a day early.
One tweet suggested Wagner soliders had been calling family all day (e.g. before a big operation).
Seizing Rostok Von Don was a clever initial play, since its a major logistics hub. This allowed him to arm his troops and provides a base if the coup fails.
It seems the South Military District gave up without a fight, with soliders surrendering.
Prigozhin has sent a shock force to Moscow, its bypassing major cities and trying to get there ASAP. There is a belief senior Kremlin officials will abandon ship.
Various helicopters are attacking the shock force but it seems Wagner are using air defence. Various MI-8, KA-52 and a ll-s2 have been shown destroyed.
The Tik Tok bigrade are trying to attack Rostok, considering they aren't "true Russians" and were used as barrier troops, this doesn't seem to be going down well. They are also stripping Donetsk of defenders to do this.
This also means if the coup lasts for more than a few days, the Russian Army's going to start running out of ammunition in significant portions of the front in Ukraine.