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US says Wagner coup is ‘real’ and ‘serious’ as White House consults allies
(www.telegraph.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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I know it's good seeing the snake eat its own tale, but what happens if Wagner group takes over Russia? My understanding is that both the group and the guy in charge of the group are no better than Putin. Do they take out Putin, then step aside for a democratically elected president?
Genuinely curious—is there any reason to believe they’d actually do this?
Absolutely zero percent chance that happens. The only outcome of this is undisguised dictatorship. The only thing we don't know yet is whether it's Wagner succeeding and installing a military junta or Putin surviving and using this as an excuse to dissolve whatever semblance of a democracy they pretended to have.
I don't see any chance for democracy anytime soon. Best case, Russian army and Wagner troops will decimate each other severely, and whoever ends up in power is struggling too much with domestic problems to effectively fight any other countries.
Worst case, one of the military leaders dies early, all troops end up intact in one hand, and whoever ends up the dictator is less inhibited to use nukes in Ukraine, thinking it might assert their dominance.
I think looking at coups historically would be beneficial. I don't imagine Russia as a state (either way) will have much energy for foreign invasion while it's dealing with an internal one. I would imagine there will be much they need to rebuild in an institutional sense...
I doubt anyone involved is going to step aside and risk falling out of a window for democracy in Russia.
I doubt things in Russia will get better but I'd expect the country would come out weaker so hopefully they wouldn't be able to continue their wars since they'll be more concerned with consolidating power.
Russian history tldr version: And then things got worse