this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2025
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I'm very glad that nothing important depends on my opinion on this and I can freely theoretize and rant, but I doubt Putin would use nukes so easily. At his core he's still a coward, and he has to know that the 'West' couldn't afford to not react to Russia nuking a European country.
Having said that, even if the threat of Russia using nukes were very real, it shouldn't weaken our resolve to support Ukraine and put a stop to Russia's aggression. Because no matter the circumstances, people like Putin cannot be allowed to have any way of forcing the world to stand back and let them commit crimes at will.
Throughout history, appeasement has never worked in anybody's favour except the aggressor's. If it turns out that a nuclear retaliatory strike in response to a Russian nuclear attack on another country really is what it takes to stop Putin, then so be it. It can't be worse in the long term than letting him just take whatever he wants. In that case I just wish we could get this over with already.
During the Cuban missile crisis Kennedy asked about using a tactical nuke against Cuba.
Kennedy's generals explained that the only possible options would be enormous first strike against the USSR, or nothing. Because if the US used a tactical nuke Khrushchev would be forced to respond. Then you'd have a nuclear exchange between superpowers anyway, but would also be giving the enemy time to react.
Yes, I'm aware of that. I just hope Vladimir is, too. At any rate he cannot be allowed to hold the whole world* hostage by playing chicken with unsubstantiated threats. The sooner he is stopped the better.
(* Except for China and his other buddies he's scared of, of course. Which is somewhat ironic, considering how young Communist China used to be such a fan of the USSR, which in turn treated its poor and underdeveloped neighbour with so thinly veiled contempt. How the tables have turned...)