this post was submitted on 30 Jul 2024
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Because of how politics works in Canada, it is still possible with today’s numbers for all the other parties to form a coalition government and elect someone else leader that’s not PP.
If you look at the actual seat-by-seat projections, current polls give a near mathematical certainty of a CCP majority.
Trudeau needs to take a page from Biden's book and step down in time for there to be a leadership race. I don't think it's fair (he's done fine as Prime Minister, imho) but he's unelectable. A PP-led majority government could do a lot of damage.
He will never do that because the Liberals need a fall guy. I think after 4 years of a Conservative government people will be begging for anything but a return to that. In that time the Liberals can regroup and come forward with someone else. They aren’t going to win no matter who they put in at this point, this is the long term play.
It depends how the votes are distributed geographically. FPTP also means that only the most popular party in each riding gets any representation at all.