Politics

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Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining (www.newsweek.com)

submitted 4 months ago by remington to c/politics

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No matter what the polls ever say, the most important thing to do is vote and encourage others to vote.

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[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 3 points 4 months ago

Yes, that's true. The poll averages themselves haven't moved much either though. And the reliance on the fundamentals forecast has me nervous, but they definitely do it for a reason. When they developed the models and looked at poll history the pattern they found was the fundamentals had a big influence on what the polls would look like closer to the election and the eventual result. Polls closer to the election are more predictive than the fundamentals. Polls farther away from the election less so. There's at least some reason to think things have changed enough maybe the fundamentals aren't as fundamental for this race, but I guess we won't know until afterward.