Sounds reasonable, even under very generous assumptions regarding the expansion of the Chinese army, there's no way they can take Taiwan within the next few decades (unless big, but unlikely, changes in alliances in the region), according to military strategists. And by that time, those generous assumptions might no longer be tolerable for the Chinese economy.

[–] fr0g@feddit.de 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

"Next few decades" seems way off. I think most analysts have it more at like within in a decade.

Edit: https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade

[–] u_tamtam@programming.dev 3 points 1 year ago

I should spend the time to assemble my sources to oppose yours once I get on a computer, but one thing I found telling was that China's current landing capability for infantry is in the low thousands whereas they would need in the high hundred thousands for minimal strategic goals, and this is the easy part in terms of shipbuilding. If they expect to invade opposed, they would need a whole fleet with anti naval and air capabilities which they don't have and does take decades to build.

[–] Joncash2@lemmy.ml 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

Well, there have been a lot of war games that currently show China losing but by a small margin. It's likely that in less than a decade China would win by a small margin. According to many US generals.

So while your wrong, China almost certainly could take Taiwan in less than a decade, I would argue that there's no chance in hell they would do it. Winning by a small margin here means millions if deaths if not nuclear war. This would be massacre that would make both Israel and Russia's violence look down right peaceful.

And it's not like China hasn't shown it's hand in what it would do. War is not China's goal, a blockade is.

[–] u_tamtam@programming.dev 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Are those games weighing Taiwan's defense capabilities versus China alone? In practice China would be up against the USA, and Korea, and Japan, and the Philippines and a plausible economic and logistics alliance of most countries in the region. I am not a military strategist but the sheer numbers alone are not in favor of China, and that is ignoring the tactical challenges at play.

[–] Joncash2@lemmy.ml 4 points 1 year ago

It includes allies. This is because of the tyranny of distance. US simply cannot power project enough to take on China with Taiwan alone.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

But these war games are actually biased towards USA. Pentagon's own war games have China winning already.

https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html

So if we believe the US military, then China can already win. Though many argue US military says this just to get more funding.

I would err on the side of US just barely winning with all allies.

That said, I do not believe China would invade. It makes no sense. Anyone who claims this is could happen should have their credibility questioned. As China as I said already has shown its hand, it will blockade if it comes to it.

[–] stolid_agnostic@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 year ago

With the way the economy is going there, I can't imagine that we can expect that China will remain as it is now in a few decades. The entire thing is ready to come tumbling down at any moment.

[–] zerfuffle@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 year ago

Taking Taiwan would lose so many lives it's absolutely absurd. It's complete unviable, especially when the US has already clearly demonstrated an alternative solution (just "not blockade" them like Cuba).