CrimeDad

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What do I look for in a nice mahjong set? in c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 15 hours ago

I think this is what I'm looking for. Thank you!

5
Walking Lichen! (pixelfed.crimedad.work)
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/152929

Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: image image

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651

Walking Lichen!

I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1

#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

14
Walking Lichen! (pixelfed.crimedad.work)
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/152929

Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: image image

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651

Walking Lichen!

I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1

#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

1
Walking Lichen! (pixelfed.crimedad.work)
 

Here are the other two photos from the series on Pixelfed: image image

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/763216516514804651

Walking Lichen!

I was grilling some steak on my deck when I noticed this camouflaged lacewing larva. Check out this site for better photos and cool facts about it: http://jimmccormac.blogspot.com/2014/10/a-murderous-mobile-lichen.html?m=1

#LichenSubscribe #Mosstodon #Macro #MacroPhotography #bugs #camouflage

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

16
What do I look for in a nice mahjong set? (lemmy.crimedad.work)
 

My wife asked for a nice mahjong set for Christmas. What sort of features should I look for in a nice set? Where should or shouldn't I shop for one?

Which political philosophy do you feel your instance incapsulates in c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml
What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Well, genocide shouldn't be up for debate. 🙃

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 4 days ago (3 children)

I think I misunderstood you. For my part, I do not put much hope these days in elections. It's just that for decades now I've been told voting third party meant throwing your vote away. This time you were wasting your vote (and a serious moral principle) to cast it for Harris. It's all just kind of astonishing to me, which is why I made the post.

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 1 points 4 days ago

we could have taken this election, but people didn’t show up.

Why do you blame millions of regular Americans instead of the extremely well funded campaign and the party behind it that failed to motivate these people to vote? How is it not the campaign that raised a billion dollars that's responsible for this tremendous loss?

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 1 points 4 days ago (5 children)

The democrats are never going to be what you want them to be.

Presumably we want them to be winners, right? How is that going to happen if the same idiots keep running their campaigns and doing completely self-defeating things like talking down to crucial constituencies and wheeling out Dick Cheney from his crypt? It's looking like they can't be winners, at least not at the presidential level. So, how poorly will the Democrats have to perform that you decide that you might as well vote for a third party candidate? Would it not be enough to notice a lack of corrective action ahead of 2028 to make you reconsider your loyalty?

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 1 points 4 days ago (2 children)

Yes those were for president, but there were at least half a dozen across other races. I asked you "Can the Democrats perform poorly enough that you would decide that you might as well vote third party (or abstain)?" If you're trying to imply an answer, I'm not following.

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (4 children)

Not sure what you mean. There were about four or so third parties on my ballot. There are also of course options to write-in a candidate or abstain.

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 3 points 5 days ago (7 children)

So you will always vote a straight Democratic ticket as long as there are Senate and House candidates with a good chance of winning? What if they have no chance of winning the White House? I think that that would be apparent if the people who ran Hillary, Biden, and Harris's campaigns are still involved and the strategy is still to court Republicans. Can the Democrats perform poorly enough that you would decide that you might as well vote third party (or abstain)?

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 3 points 5 days ago

The link in the body text of the OP is not for an x.com page. If you don't want to follow the link in the header, it is just for a tweet by @jon_bois asking the same question that I am asking, referencing the revelation that Biden kept running despite his team knowing that Trump was going to win with something like 400 electoral votes.

What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? in c/usnews
[–] CrimeDad@lemmy.crimedad.work 2 points 5 days ago (2 children)

Why? 100,000 people over the course of a few months isn’t enough of a problem for you?

I did a quick search and the most recent statistic I found was that at least 7.36 million people were arrested for all offenses in the US in 2022. That is about half of the peak annual rate in the nineties. The sad reality is that 100,000 more arrests spread out over a year just isn't that much. If you are clarifying the scenario as "100,000 people getting deportation or prison time for things that are currently absolutely clearly legal, such as being Hispanic or attending a protest", then that is specific enough for me to agree to a six month window.

I agree on the terms for the second scenario, that there's new legislation or policy under Trump that leads to social media users or operators getting criminally charged merely for social media posts that are critical of the Republican party.

I'll bet $50 against each scenario. I'm fine with not paying each other. The loser can pay that much to the organization of the winner's choice. If I am successful I will probably choose a smaller group that provides legal assistance to immigrants and asylum seekers or maybe a strike fund. I don't know. The point is I won't expect you to give money to something bad.

22
What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? (x.com)
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/151111

With the dust is settling from their defeat on Tuesday, it's becoming clearer that there was some incredible malpractice going on in the Democratic party. As shown in the tweet I linked, Biden delayed dropping out even though his team knew it was going to be a complete blowout for Trump. Then, we have Harris's campaign spending over a billion dollars and still losing all of the swing states she needed to win.

For all the Democrats who would never vote Republican and would have never voted third party, are you now considering voting third party in future elections? If not, what would it take?

8
What will it take for staunch Democrats to vote third party? (x.com)
 

With the dust is settling from their defeat on Tuesday, it's becoming clearer that there was some incredible malpractice going on in the Democratic party. As shown in the tweet I linked, Biden delayed dropping out even though his team knew it was going to be a complete blowout for Trump. Then, we have Harris's campaign spending over a billion dollars and still losing all of the swing states she needed to win.

For all the Democrats who would never vote Republican and would have never voted third party, are you now considering voting third party in future elections? If not, what would it take?

3
A good deal? Swing-State Voters Disillusioned With Kamala Harris Can Swap for Two Non-Swing-State Votes (theintercept.com)
 

Not completely sure I'm doing it right, but a 2:1 safe state for swing state swap seems like a bad deal. Here's my reasoning:

  • In New Jersey, as an example of a safe state for Harris, Fivethirtyeight has Harris winning in 993 out of 1000 simulated elections. Assuming the same turnout as 2020 of 4,549,457 votes, there's a 0.500546 chance, on average, that a NJ voter will vote for Harris. I figured that out using the BINOM.DIST.RANGE function and the Goal Seek tool in Excel.
  • In Michigan, with a turnout of 5,539,302 voters in 2020, Harris wins in only 605 out of 1000 simulations. Using the same tools above, if you randomly picked any Michigan voter, there's a 0.500059 chance that he or she is voting for Harris.
  • Using the BINOMDIST function with the assumed turnouts and the chances we determined that voters in each of the above states would go for Harris, there's a 3.25986e-4 chance that Michigan is decided by a single vote. Likewise, there's a 2.47681e-5 chance for the same in NJ. Based on the probability that it could shift electoral college votes, a Michigan ballot is distinctly more powerful than an NJ one.
  • If you could could reliably convince one more person to vote like you in NJ, your chances of affecting the NJ outcome only increase to 2.48222e-5.
  • For an NJ voter to match their chances of affecting the Michigan outcome, they would have to command about 1,925 votes besides their own. In other words, there's an almost equal chance of a single vote Harris victory in MI as a 1,926 vote victory in NJ.
  • Therefore, if a Michigan voter values their power, they should not trade their vote for anything less than 1,926 New Jersey votes. The rate should actually be greater to account for welching and Michigan having one more electoral vote than NJ.

Am I missing something?

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156613

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22156612

Matt Sledge
November 4 2024, 1:56 p.m.#

19
Man Arrested and Charged with Attempting to Use a Weapon of Mass Destruction and to Destroy an Energy Facility in Nashville (www.justice.gov)
 

I do not have much sympathy for guys like this one, but I doubt that he would have gotten as far along in this plot without the FBI's undercover help.

10
From Iron Dome to F-15s: US provides 70% of Israel’s war costs | CTech (www.calcalistech.com)
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.crimedad.work/post/149349

Here's a link to the paper referenced by the article. Not sure why it wasn't included with the article. Anyway, this chart stood out to me: image

Don't believe or respect anyone who says the White House is working on a ceasefire deal. This administration has clearly been working on just the opposite.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22130019

A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniquely able to use that funding to spend on domestic goods.

The total amount of American aid since the start of the war is about NIS 85 billion ($22 billion) based on an average exchange rate by the Bank of Israel over the past year. Most has been delivered but about $5.2 billion will only arrive next year. According to official estimates from the Bank of Israel, the total cost of the war is estimated to be about NIS 250 billion ($65 billion), including around NIS 118 billion ($31 billion) for military costs including army operational costs, replenishment of military equipment, ammunition, and logistical support. Therefore, by a simple calculation, the U.S. has been funding about 70% of the war effort.

12
From Iron Dome to F-15s: US provides 70% of Israel’s war costs | CTech (www.calcalistech.com)
 

Here's a link to the paper referenced by the article. Not sure why it wasn't included with the article. Anyway, this chart stood out to me: image

Don't believe or respect anyone who says the White House is working on a ceasefire deal. This administration has clearly been working on just the opposite.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/22130019

A report by Brown University’s Watson Institute reveals that since the beginning of the war, the US has spent more than $22 billion on military aid to Israel - from weapons and equipment to the deployment of aircraft carriers. Israel receives more U.S. military aid than any other country and is uniquely able to use that funding to spend on domestic goods.

The total amount of American aid since the start of the war is about NIS 85 billion ($22 billion) based on an average exchange rate by the Bank of Israel over the past year. Most has been delivered but about $5.2 billion will only arrive next year. According to official estimates from the Bank of Israel, the total cost of the war is estimated to be about NIS 250 billion ($65 billion), including around NIS 118 billion ($31 billion) for military costs including army operational costs, replenishment of military equipment, ammunition, and logistical support. Therefore, by a simple calculation, the U.S. has been funding about 70% of the war effort.

1
#PintCheck (pixelfed.crimedad.work)
 

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/758541431164274981

#PintCheck

#Smithwicks #beer

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

1
Just sharing the spreadsheet I made to help with coaching youth soccer. (pixelfed.crimedad.work)
 

cross-posted from: https://pixelfed.crimedad.work/p/crimedad/758441003385510004

I received a thank you card from one of the players I coached in soccer this season and it really warmed my heart.

Apart from making my day, it also reminded me that I had wanted to share the spreadsheet I made to help plan substitutions and balance playing time. Here's the link: https://github.com/FatherMcGruder/A-Youth-Soccer-Game-Plan

It's also my first time sharing something on GitHub. Hopefully, I didn't do anything wrong!

#Soccer #Coaching #spreadsheet #github

@crosspost@lemmy.crimedad.work

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