I think they're right - this is a ticking time bomb and even if the mortgage market comes under control in the next few months, rate are going to be high all the way through to the next election in Autumn/Winter 2024.
An economy under pressure, with people having to sell their homes in a depressed property market or worse families having their homes repossessed - I can't see the tories coming back form this.
No party has come back from so far back in the polls to win an election at this stage. Also the tories are hopelessly divided - everything they feel like they're "getting somewhere" their divisions come to the for again.
On top of all that, the mortgage timebomb alongside the inflation problems are looking like they're lasting longer than expected/hoped. I'd expect much of next year to be dominated with stories about families struggling to cope with the high mortgage rates, being forced to sell their homes and the property market being a mess. It's not a good situation to be in but I can't see how the Tories can see that out.
This drama is going to play out all the way up to the election. At the moment it looks like he star is on the wane but it really depends on how much support he really has amongst the Tory members.
The party after the next election is going to be a mess. They'll either elect someone to the right of the party and fester in irrelevence for years or possibly back to Boris for more drama. Could he even stand as an independent if the leadership try and keep him out of a seat?
This drama never seems to end.
It's global warming - it's decided to take the weekends off so it can also indulge in avocado toast.
Are we a nation of cumudgeons?
This makes sense. But the biggest issue is that the word "transphobia" means different things to different people, which then makes it a nightmare for anyone trying to police a space with free speech.
There is a similar problem with Homophobia but less marked and controversial perhaps? I'm a gay guy. If someone says "I hate gay people" thats obviously homophobia. But if someone says "I don't think gay people should marry, because marriage is a religious thing" is that homophobia? I don't agree with it but it's an opinion. Someone can be hateful and hold that opinion, but that opinion itself doesn't mean the person is hateful - at least to me. But another gay person may say "no that is hateful in itself". Where do you draw the line?
Also to my understanding the fediverse doesn't have any written rules on what is allowed. Each server sets their rules, and there has been consensus around certain rules (such as those you mention). The complexity comes in enforcing the intepretation of rules by one server on another, and the risk is fragmentation with some places defederated between others and people getting confused what is or isn't interconnected. A may defederate from B, but both may stay federated with C. The content on A and B is visible from C but users interacting with content from C on A and B won't see each other in C's communities or interect.
I have no answers for this. It's just going to be a big challenge that is inherent to this model. But it is still way better than what exists in old social media.
The article is behind a pay wall but accessible here: https://archive.is/CELPA