Anyone

Romania, alongside other European states, was targeted by acts of "sabotage" characteristic of Russian tactics throughout 2024, according to a recent report from DIICOT. The goal of these hybrid attacks was to test NATO countries' defense preparedness and identify weaknesses in infrastructure, the Directorate for Investigating Organized Crime and Terrorism said.

"Since 2022, at least 50 incidents have occurred in 13 European countries that could be Russian hybrid operations. These include cases of espionage, diversion, vandalism, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and three attacks on underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea," DIICOT stated.

Romanian prosecutors indicate that Russia has changed its tactics in launching hybrid attacks, no longer sending its agents into NATO states but instead recruiting random contractors via chat groups on the Telegram app in exchange for money.

"Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Sweden have been affected by hybrid attacks. In most cases, there were no casualties, although avoiding casualties is not a priority for Russian intelligence services," DIICOT explained.

...

[This is a comment by Andi Hoxhaj Lecturer in Law, King's College London, UK.]

On November 1 2024, the roof of a newly €55 million renovated railway station in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second biggest city, collapsed and killed 15 people. The deaths sparked Serbia’s largest wave of student-led anti-government protests since Yugoslavia’s disintegration in 2000.

The protests pose the most serious threat to Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić’s power since he became prime minister in 2014, and president in 2017. The protest movement has highlighted Vučić’s growing authoritarian rule and widespread corruption in Serbia.

Serbians believe that the deadly roof collapse was caused by government corruption. The station was renovated by a Chinese-led consortium as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative investments and growing political ties with Serbia. The Chinese consortium and Vučić refused to publish the railway station restoration procurement contract after protesters demanded it.

...

The protesters have four demands: the publication of all procurement documents concerning the renovation of the station, a stop to the prosecution of students arrested during the protests, the prosecution of police and security forces involved in attacking students during the protests and a 20% increase in the budget for higher education.

However, the Serbian government and media — most of which Vučić controls through a network of political patronage and cronyism – are downplaying the protests and threatening students.

...

Russia and China have fully supported Vučić’s claims that Serbia is the target of a western plot to orchestrate the protesters and overthrow Vučić.

...

The EU must also publicly support student protesters who want Serbia to become more democratic and accountable. After all, the students are fighting for the very ideals on which the EU was founded.

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni accused Russia of "offending the entire Italian nation" on Friday as she stood by comments by the Italian president that compared modern-day Russia to Nazi Germany.

In a speech last week, President Sergio Mattarella criticised the "wars of aggression" that led to World War Two. "This was the project of the Third Reich in Europe. The current Russian aggression against Ukraine is of this nature," he said.

Reacting to those statements with some delay, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Friday lambasted Mattarella's remarks as "blasphemous inventions".

Meloni said in a strongly-worded statement: "The insults of the spokeswoman (...) offend the entire Italian nation, which the head of state represents."

"I express my full solidarity, as well as that of the entire government, to President Mattarella, who has always firmly condemned the aggression perpetrated against Ukraine," she added.

Italy has traditionally been one of the countries in Europe with the closest political and economic ties to Russia, but under Meloni it has firmly stood by Ukraine, including with military aid.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18434833

The new UK Government’s plan to decarbonise the electricity system brings with it the lofty aim of tripling total solar capacity by the end of the decade. Although much of this will be driven by large-scale installations, ministers are also hoping for a “rooftop revolution” that could see millions more homes topped with solar panels by 2030.

As well as providing carbon-free electricity, domestic solar can deliver significant reductions in energy spending – an average of £440 per year – to the households that get them. This means policy makers should think about rooftop solar like other ways of permanently reducing household energy spending, such as improving insulation. So in this briefing note we take a closer look at the case for installing more solar panels, discuss progress so far, and consider what, if any, policy might be needed to maximise the benefits.

The study's main points:

• While rooftop solar can make a small contribution to Clean Power, it can cut household bills by an estimated £440 a year on average, equivalent to almost a quarter of energy spending for the poorest fifth of households.
• Measured by savings per pound spent, solar panels compare well with other bill-cutting measures, yielding 7p-a-year per pound spent, a third more than cavity-wall insulation. Importantly, solar panels have had relatively low uptake compared to many other measures, having been installed on only 8 per cent of roofs.
• Poorer households have the most to gain from lower bills but are least able to access solar panels without policy support, due to prohibitive up-front costs. Changes to policy support in the past decade has shifted the distribution of solar panels towards richer areas – in 2015 there were more solar panels installed in the poorest third of LSOAs than the richest (35 to 31 per cent), but by 2023 more than twice as many went to the richest places (45 to 21 per cent).
• With a well-target package of support, solar panels could help to significantly reduce fuel poverty. We estimate that up to one-in-three fuel-poor households could be taken out of fuel poverty by typical solar savings, subject to the suitability of their homes.
• Though most consumers seem to be paid relatively well for the electricity they generate, the Smart Export Guarantee isn’t doing enough to prevent some solar panel owners being paid very little for their generation, with 20 per cent of Smart Export Guarantee tariffs being “unbundled” tariffs that pay just 4p/kwh on average.
• The government should consider more means-tested support with up-front costs, including both grants and subsidised loans targeted at low-to-middle income households.

The new UK Government’s plan to decarbonise the electricity system brings with it the lofty aim of tripling total solar capacity by the end of the decade. Although much of this will be driven by large-scale installations, ministers are also hoping for a “rooftop revolution” that could see millions more homes topped with solar panels by 2030.

As well as providing carbon-free electricity, domestic solar can deliver significant reductions in energy spending – an average of £440 per year – to the households that get them. This means policy makers should think about rooftop solar like other ways of permanently reducing household energy spending, such as improving insulation. So in this briefing note we take a closer look at the case for installing more solar panels, discuss progress so far, and consider what, if any, policy might be needed to maximise the benefits.

The study's main points:

• While rooftop solar can make a small contribution to Clean Power, it can cut household bills by an estimated £440 a year on average, equivalent to almost a quarter of energy spending for the poorest fifth of households.
• Measured by savings per pound spent, solar panels compare well with other bill-cutting measures, yielding 7p-a-year per pound spent, a third more than cavity-wall insulation. Importantly, solar panels have had relatively low uptake compared to many other measures, having been installed on only 8 per cent of roofs.
• Poorer households have the most to gain from lower bills but are least able to access solar panels without policy support, due to prohibitive up-front costs. Changes to policy support in the past decade has shifted the distribution of solar panels towards richer areas – in 2015 there were more solar panels installed in the poorest third of LSOAs than the richest (35 to 31 per cent), but by 2023 more than twice as many went to the richest places (45 to 21 per cent).
• With a well-target package of support, solar panels could help to significantly reduce fuel poverty. We estimate that up to one-in-three fuel-poor households could be taken out of fuel poverty by typical solar savings, subject to the suitability of their homes.
• Though most consumers seem to be paid relatively well for the electricity they generate, the Smart Export Guarantee isn’t doing enough to prevent some solar panel owners being paid very little for their generation, with 20 per cent of Smart Export Guarantee tariffs being “unbundled” tariffs that pay just 4p/kwh on average.
• The government should consider more means-tested support with up-front costs, including both grants and subsidised loans targeted at low-to-middle income households.

Here is the link to the study.

The researchers, from the University of Cambridge, say their solar-powered reactor could be used to make fuel to power cars and planes, or the many chemicals and pharmaceuticals products we rely on. It could also be used to generate fuel in remote or off-grid locations.

Unlike most carbon capture technologies, the reactor developed by the Cambridge researchers does not require fossil-fuel-based power, or the transport and storage of carbon dioxide, but instead converts atmospheric CO2 into something useful using sunlight. The results are reported in the journal Nature Energy.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has been touted as a possible solution to the climate crisis, and has recently received £22bn in funding from the UK government. However, CCS is energy-intensive and there are concerns about the long-term safety of storing pressurised CO2 deep underground, although safety studies are currently being carried out.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18400799

Archived

The European Union’s top diplomat slammed U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for sidelining Ukraine and engaging with Russia’s Vladimir Putin without consulting Kyiv or Europe.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told allies in Brussels on Wednesday that Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and reclaim its 1991 borders as part of a peace settlement were “unrealistic.” He also said the U.S. would “no longer tolerate” European NATO members relying on Washington for security.

The remarks, followed by a surprise phone call between Trump and Putin in which the two agreed to enter peace talks, have stunned European officials and raised concerns that Kyiv may be sidelined in discussions about its own future.

“They [the U.S.] say that it’s not going to be NATO membership, but some other security guarantees. Then the questions need to be answered by everybody — what are these security guarantees, really?” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, ahead of a NATO defense ministers’ meeting.

“Being in NATO, where we have these structures, is actually the best security guarantee,” she added.

[...]

“We shouldn’t take anything off the table before negotiations start. It plays into Russia’s hands. And it is exactly what they want,” she said. “Why are we giving them everything they want even before negotiations begin? Appeasement has never worked.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius echoed her concerns, warning against making public concessions ahead of talks.

“In my view, it would have been better to discuss Ukraine’s possible NATO membership or the country’s possible loss of territory only at the negotiating table, not to rule it out beforehand,” Pistorius said in Brussels.

Kallas stressed that any peace deal imposed without the consent of Ukraine and European allies was doomed to fail.

[...]

Archived

The European Union’s top diplomat slammed U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for sidelining Ukraine and engaging with Russia’s Vladimir Putin without consulting Kyiv or Europe.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told allies in Brussels on Wednesday that Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and reclaim its 1991 borders as part of a peace settlement were “unrealistic.” He also said the U.S. would “no longer tolerate” European NATO members relying on Washington for security.

The remarks, followed by a surprise phone call between Trump and Putin in which the two agreed to enter peace talks, have stunned European officials and raised concerns that Kyiv may be sidelined in discussions about its own future.

“They [the U.S.] say that it’s not going to be NATO membership, but some other security guarantees. Then the questions need to be answered by everybody — what are these security guarantees, really?” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, ahead of a NATO defense ministers’ meeting.

“Being in NATO, where we have these structures, is actually the best security guarantee,” she added.

[...]

“We shouldn’t take anything off the table before negotiations start. It plays into Russia’s hands. And it is exactly what they want,” she said. “Why are we giving them everything they want even before negotiations begin? Appeasement has never worked.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius echoed her concerns, warning against making public concessions ahead of talks.

“In my view, it would have been better to discuss Ukraine’s possible NATO membership or the country’s possible loss of territory only at the negotiating table, not to rule it out beforehand,” Pistorius said in Brussels.

Kallas stressed that any peace deal imposed without the consent of Ukraine and European allies was doomed to fail.

[...]

Archived link

Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador, laid on the table in front of him the debris of Russian drones that attacked Moldovan territory. Here is a video (40 sec.) about it.

The Russian diplomat was summoned to the MFA regarding recent violations of Moldova's airspace by several Russian drones, two of which exploded on Moldovan territory. The Ministry presented the Russian ambassador with fragments of the fallen drones as concrete evidence of these violations of airspace.

The Moldovan side issued a strong protest, emphasizing that such incidents seriously threaten national security and the safety of Moldovan citizens. Authorities in Chișinău stated that such actions violate national sovereignty and represent an unfriendly act by the Russian Federation.

...

Diplomatic tensions between Moldova and the Russian Federation have intensified after several Russian drones crossed the country’s airspace on the night of February 12-13, during an attack on the port of Reni, Ukraine.

Moldova is not the only country where the Russian Cultural Center has been closed. In March 2022, the government of Slovenia also annulled an agreement with Russia regarding scientific and cultural centers following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the Russian Scientific and Cultural Center in Ljubljana was closed, according to culture.si.

In February 2023, the activity of the Russian Center for Culture and Science in Bucharest was also suspended. According to a statement from the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, "The center had completely deviated from its original goals of fostering cultural ties and had unfortunately become an instrument of propaganda, disinformation, and justification for Russia's war crimes in Ukraine."

In October 2024, Finnish authorities began seizing properties owned by the Russian state after a court in The Hague ordered Moscow to compensate the Ukrainian national gas supplier for assets lost during the annexation of Crimea, according to The Moscow Times.

Additionally, authorities in Azerbaijan closed a Russian cultural center in Baku in early February 2024, amid deteriorating relations with Moscow following accusations that Russian air defense systems shot down an Azerbaijani aircraft, killing 38 people, as reported by AFP.

Other countries where Russian Cultural Centers have been closed include the Czech Republic and Germany.

[This is an opinionated article by Gabrielius Landsbergis, former minister of foreign affairs of Lithuania.]

...

Hungary blocks more than half of the EU’s foreign policy decisions. It continues to obstruct the European Peace Facility, a fund designed to support Ukraine’s defense. Whatever is proposed, EU diplomats have learned to brace themselves for a Hungarian veto.

...

The principle of unity that underpinned the European project has been twisted and weaponized. In today’s world, this means paralysis in the face of rapidly unfolding geopolitical and technological developments.

History offers a chilling parallel. In the eighteenth century, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, once a major European power, was crippled by the liberum veto—a system that allowed any single noble to block all parliamentary decisions. This eventually led to legislative paralysis.

...

Recently the geopolitical stakes rose even higher. It is not inconceivable that Hungary would, for example, block retaliatory tariffs against the United States, or disagree with increasing common borrowing for defense if the United States begins to withdraw. Also, the need to regularly renew sanctions against Russia gives Hungary, or any other wannabe disruptor, a very effective way to twist the European Commission’s arm.

Thankfully, the EU is not powerless to stop all this. The Treaty on European Union’s includes Article 7 is, a mechanism designed for this very situation—a member state systematically ignoring European values. The process is complex, but it exists.

Under Article 7(1), proceedings can be initiated if there is a "clear risk" of a serious breach of European values. This must be confirmed by a majority vote in the European Parliament. If the risk is confirmed, Article 7(2) allows for the European Council to find the accused member in breach. If that happens, Article 7(3) enables the imposition of sanctions, including the suspension of voting rights.

...

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/18397612

Archived

China’s emissions of key super-polluting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants now represent more than 20 per cent of the global total.

In a newly published study, Xiaoyi Hu and colleagues reported on new observations of three of the main HFCs in use today – HFC-125, HFC-134a and HFC-143a – showing that emissions had increased to 206.4 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2022.

This is equivalent to the emissions from more than 500 natural gas-fired power plants in a single year.

And the threat this poses to the planet’s climate could worsen as China’s requirement to cap its HFC use under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol actually gives it room to increase its emissions.

The Kigali Amendment requires a gradual phase-down of the production and consumption of HFCs, highly potent greenhouse gases used primarily in refrigeration and air-conditioning. As a developing country, China was required to cap its HFC use in 2024 at a baseline level and reduce it by 10 per cent by 2029.

However, China’s 2023 consumption of HFCs was 769.4 million tonnes, which amounts to only 85 per cent of the actual baseline cap – meaning that under the current rules, the country can actually increase its consumption (and therefore emissions) by 15 per cent.

EIA UK Climate Campaign Lead Clare Perry said: “The baseline calculation under the Kigali Amendment provides too much room for growth and takes away some of the ambition from this important global agreement.

“Even in four years from now, when a 10 per cent reduction from the baseline is required, China can actually increase HFC use from current levels by some 45.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – and the next reduction step does not occur until 2035.

“This is untenable given we are facing a global climate crisis and urgently need to cut all greenhouse gas emissions this decade.

“China is the world’s leading producer of these gases and also the leading manufacturer of the equipment that uses them. It’s in a prime position to take ambitious steps to move away from reliance on these dangerous polluting fluorochemicals, which have not only punched a huge hole in the ozone layer causing hundreds of millions of skin cancer cases and untold environmental damage, but are responsible for 12 per cent of global warming to date.”

The study utilised observations from a station in Changdao, China, giving researchers access to more accurate monitoring of emissions from northern China, where most of the fluorochemical industry is based.

Perry welcomed the study and highlighted the importance of accurate regional and global monitoring data, but warned that the current global regulation of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol was insufficient to ensure the rapid emissions reductions needed to secure a safe climate.

EIA calls on China and other parties to the Montreal Protocol to follow the lead of the European Union and accelerate action to phase out HFCs.

Archived

China’s emissions of key super-polluting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants now represent more than 20 per cent of the global total.

In a newly published study, Xiaoyi Hu and colleagues reported on new observations of three of the main HFCs in use today – HFC-125, HFC-134a and HFC-143a – showing that emissions had increased to 206.4 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2022.

This is equivalent to the emissions from more than 500 natural gas-fired power plants in a single year.

And the threat this poses to the planet’s climate could worsen as China’s requirement to cap its HFC use under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol actually gives it room to increase its emissions.

The Kigali Amendment requires a gradual phase-down of the production and consumption of HFCs, highly potent greenhouse gases used primarily in refrigeration and air-conditioning. As a developing country, China was required to cap its HFC use in 2024 at a baseline level and reduce it by 10 per cent by 2029.

However, China’s 2023 consumption of HFCs was 769.4 million tonnes, which amounts to only 85 per cent of the actual baseline cap – meaning that under the current rules, the country can actually increase its consumption (and therefore emissions) by 15 per cent.

EIA UK Climate Campaign Lead Clare Perry said: “The baseline calculation under the Kigali Amendment provides too much room for growth and takes away some of the ambition from this important global agreement.

“Even in four years from now, when a 10 per cent reduction from the baseline is required, China can actually increase HFC use from current levels by some 45.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – and the next reduction step does not occur until 2035.

“This is untenable given we are facing a global climate crisis and urgently need to cut all greenhouse gas emissions this decade.

“China is the world’s leading producer of these gases and also the leading manufacturer of the equipment that uses them. It’s in a prime position to take ambitious steps to move away from reliance on these dangerous polluting fluorochemicals, which have not only punched a huge hole in the ozone layer causing hundreds of millions of skin cancer cases and untold environmental damage, but are responsible for 12 per cent of global warming to date.”

The study utilised observations from a station in Changdao, China, giving researchers access to more accurate monitoring of emissions from northern China, where most of the fluorochemical industry is based.

Perry welcomed the study and highlighted the importance of accurate regional and global monitoring data, but warned that the current global regulation of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol was insufficient to ensure the rapid emissions reductions needed to secure a safe climate.

EIA calls on China and other parties to the Montreal Protocol to follow the lead of the European Union and accelerate action to phase out HFCs.