Perhaps this isn't the coup just yet. Most likely his attempts to rally the Russian military to his side failed and it's possible that he was offered some kind of deal to not be arrested/killed if he waved off now.

How he was going to hold Moscow with less than 20k troops (assuming some peeled off on the march for various duties), I didn't know. It's a huge city and 20k troops would be a small footprint once you spread them out over such a large metro area. Maybe waving off at this point was all part of the expected brinksmanship he's been playing with the head of the Russian MoD?

Interesting times in Russia!

As usual it’s all theater. The real question is if Putin was part of it from the start or if it was just him showing he had the loyalty of the Russian army.

Only way the current situation makes sense to me:

1. Prigozhin finds out Putin wants him dead
2. Prigozhin decides "if I'm dead anyway, I'm taking Putin with me"
3. Lukashenko somehow convinces Prigozhin that "it's ok, Putin changed his mind and won't kill you anymore" - so Prigozhin no longer feels the need to go for a suicide mission (although how Lukashenko convinced Prigozhin of this, I have no idea)

If this had really been about Shoigu or a coup or anything other than just a suicide mission, then the current result makes 0 sense. (But in that case, maybe the situation isn't really over at all)

Worst revolution ever.

"So, understanding the full responsibility for the potential shedding of Russian blood from either side"

What did he THINK would happen when he reached Moscow? Putin would come out on a terrace and address everyone with "Thank you for proving your resolve! As a reward, you may torture as many Ukrainians as you want!"

So was this fake so that Putin has someone to blame for all the failures in Ukraine?

*And lets him have a crackdown on "dissent".

*And dissolve Wagner. But you can't just dissolve it because many are criminals. Now you can throw them back in prison.

*Or see who in the government joined with them. A test of loyalty.

Feels fishy imo, we'll see in the next 12-24 hours i guess.