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| Party Name | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (% Current) | Percentage (%) Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 180 | +20 | 43.6% | +11% | 76.3% | 19.4% |
| Conservative | 128 | +9 | 40.6% | +6.9% | 0.6% | 3.6% |
| Bloc | 25 | -7 | 5.2% | -2.4% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 8 | -17 | 6.8% | -11% | N/A | N/A |
It will be interesting to see what happens after April 2nd. It seems likely that we'll see CPC dip again, before climbing back up as we approach election day. There's a bit of an intuitive sense that the Conservatives are aligned with Trump, even if ideologically, and anger at him is getting partially directed into a rejection of the Cons.
Also, I wonder who the next NDP leader will be...
Yeah. I think Carney is likely to push PP to "disavow" Trump because we know a chunk of PP's voters are Trump supporters and so PP is unlikely to provide a full-throated Trump rejection. Rest of Canadians would react at it as you described.
In any case, the race is very much too close for comfort at this point.
I don't get why he doesn't do it. What are his voters going to do if he disavows Trump? vote NDP?
He has everything to gain and nothing to lose.
The might go to Bernier.
It seems likely that we’ll see CPC dip again, before climbing back up as we approach election day.
As long as Agent Orange down south doesn't do anything else crazy before the election!
There's no way that guy's got that sort of self control...or long term memory.
Things are tightening up as expected.