I might accept the premise that inflation is higher than officially reported, but I don't accept the relevance of your evidence in support of that premise.
this post was submitted on 31 May 2024
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Speculation on the price definitely occurs, which is why I chose to use the one-year simple moving average instead. Measure it from January 1st, 2024, till today, and you see that it's risen 7.1%. So if inflation keeps up like it has been, and it appears to be, then it would be 14.2% higher by December 31st.
I think you wildly misunderstood what the other commenter was trying to get at, namely that you are trying to extrapolate a gobal and relatively volatile value of a single material to the scale of the entire gobal economy. If for instance a major mine was forced to shut down then you would see a major increase in the price of gold, but no change to the economy as a whole outside of a small fraction of the aforementioned change making its contribution to the outputs of a few niche industries.
Moreover if a commodity can work as a pure measure of inflation in the economy then we would expect the gobal price index of all commodities to provide a more accurate measure, right? Actually doing that relative to USD however actually shows minor deflation since Q3 2023, which itself saw a whopping 30% deflation between 2022 and 2023.
Given these numbers do not seem at all indicative of my personal or observed change in the average price of goods and services across the entire economy, it would seem that commodity prices don’t have a significant direct correlation with inflation.