this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2024
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Peter Dutton's nuclear plan is just terrible public policy.

The truth is that, in an Australian context, with nuclear power more expensive per kilowatt hour than either grid scale solar & storage or coal, nuclear just doesn't make economic sense.

The UK has a mature nuclear industry. Its new Hinkley Point C plant, started in 2016, is now expected to not be complete until 2031, and costs £35bn.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/23/hinkley-point-c-could-be-delayed-to-2031-and-cost-up-to-35bn-says-edf

So how much would it cost to replace all of Australia's coal power plants with nuclear ones?

We'll, at current exchange rates, £35bn — that's the cost of just one Hinkley Point C sized reactors — works out to A$67.6 billion.

So building just 10 nuclear reactors the size of Hinkley Point C costs $A676bn, making the AUKUS subs look like Home Brand corn flakes in comparison.

(Just for comparison, ScoMo's AUKUS subs cost $368bn, and Daniel Andrew's Suburban Rail loop is estimated at around $100bn.)

That's assuming Australia, starting from scratch, could build nuclear plants as quickly and cheaply as the UK, which was one of the first nations on Earth to split the atom.

So is it debt & deficit to fund this? Big new taxes? Even by the LNP's own measuring sticks, it's a crap policy!

The Australian Federal Government has previously examined the prospect of building nuclear power plants in the Switkowski report: https://webarchive.nla.gov.au/awa/20080117214749/http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/79623/20080117-2207/dpmc.gov.au/umpner/docs/nuclear_report.pdf

The big thing that's changed since it was published is that grid solar + storage is now cheaper than coal or nuclear power.

So would you support holding up the closure of coal plants for 15 years until nuclear plants are completed, then paying substantially more on your power bills, while the federal government pays hundreds of billions of dollars in government subsidies, while also hiring thousands of additional public servants to regulate it all?

#auspol #nuclear #ClimateChange #australia @australianpolitics

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[–] Old_IT_geek@techhub.social 13 points 8 months ago (1 children)

@ajsadauskas @australianpolitics The key purpose of this policy is NOT to build nuclear power plants. It is to block solar/wind, storage and pumped hydro and to drain all investment in them. Investors will hold off funding renewables because nuclear is coming (in 15 years or more). In the meantime Gina will be selling coal as fast as she can to all the aging inefficient coal plants in the country.

The NEM is 5,000 kilometres long, from Cairns to Hobart and from Sydney to Adelaide. Renewable power anywhere along that line will feed the grid. So the wind not blowing anywhere between Cains and Hobart is ludicrous. What we need is much more solar/wind attached to the NEM so local shortages can be smoothed out. Baseload is last century thinking. This century is all about distributed power generation. Why have one power station with 4 boilers when for the same money you can have 20 wind farms each with 50-80 wind turbines and no single point of failure.

[–] zurohki@aussie.zone 8 points 8 months ago (1 children)

The key purpose of this policy is NOT to build nuclear power plants. It is to block solar/wind, storage and pumped hydro and to drain all investment in them.

It's not a coincidence that they started pushing for nuclear after they lost government and wouldn't be expected to actually implement it. While they were in government and able to act, they were pushing for government funded coal plants.

[–] SuperMoosie@mastodon.au 1 points 8 months ago (1 children)
[–] SuperMoosie@mastodon.au 1 points 8 months ago

Credit: someone off twitter before musk started stuffing it up.

[–] lambda951@aussie.zone 6 points 8 months ago

Dutton's position here as many have pointed out is to stall and not actually to build nuclear.

I think nuclear has a place as we need to move the world off carbon ASAP (That place basically being India and China where there is a lot of dirty coal that needs to be shutdown ASAP).

If we really wanted to do something nuclear I'd suggest working on building modular reactors that we can build in factories and deploy to places where its harder for renewables to make sense, that said i'd wager a better financial proposition would be to invest in alternative renewables, say more tidal technology. If we want to support the pacific being able to provide tidal power generation seems like an easy win, that also provides significant political influence (which waned under the last conservative government).

Now if i was a National i'd be pushing for lots of renewables in the country, all that construction and those jobs supporting the new infrastructure, and yet they don't...

[–] stephengentle@ioc.exchange 6 points 8 months ago (1 children)

@ajsadauskas @australianpolitics I don’t believe it’s an honest policy though. Sure, some zealots in the party and their supporters at Sky News etc. truly believe it can happen, but most of them probably realise it’s hogwash. So I have to assume that the point is (if they were elected, God forbid) to spend a good decade delaying closure of coal plants and scrapping as much renewable transition as possible until they finally “find out” that the economics don’t make sense. Probably some good consultancy money for mates in the meantime…

Seems cynical, I know, but I just can’t believe they are acting in good faith. As you say, it’s just too dumb…

[–] abartlet@mastodon.nzoss.nz 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

@stephengentle @ajsadauskas @australianpolitics It isn't even that.

It is just a way of signalling that they hate the anti-nuke greens.

[–] stephengentle@ioc.exchange 1 points 8 months ago

@abartlet @ajsadauskas @australianpolitics Perhaps I am giving them too much credit?

[–] Ardubal@mastodon.xyz 2 points 8 months ago (6 children)

@ajsadauskas @australianpolitics

What would »grid scale solar & storage« cost, and how long would it take?

This is the competition:

  1. Nuclear power plants
  2. Storage of the same scale, filled by solar of the same scale

No one in the whole world has ever built (2). There is no mature industry, and no technology even matching the only grid scale storage we have so far (pumped hydro).

For (1), there are several international players with established designs.

I wouldn't stop either one.

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[–] NuModular@techhub.social 1 points 8 months ago (1 children)

@ajsadauskas @australianpolitics Given the accelerating collapse of ecosystems globally, developing nations barely have a shot at evolving the energy sector, let alone industrialized nations that easily keep renewables and nuclear at a 10% market share.

Whether you do a deep-dive into #6thMassExtinction or not, we're in one.

[–] ajsadauskas@aus.social 8 points 8 months ago (2 children)

@NuModular @australianpolitics My post is quite explicitly not about developing nations.

It's about Australia.

Nuclear might make sense in other parts of the world, but it is not a substitute for renewables and storage in Australia.

[–] NuModular@techhub.social 1 points 8 months ago

@ajsadauskas @australianpolitics My post explicitly scaled less-to-more developed, industrialized nations. You isolate value spaces because you can't, or won't, do the "developed" math.

Reap what you sow. Your ilk are why fossil fuels so easily maintains a 90% market share, and future generations are in genocidal jeopardy.

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