Here's my prediction, but I'd like others to contribute their predictions as well. I think it's important that we make ourselves aware of signs before they start showing, and that we have a record to point to if things play out exactly as we predict.
- Threads launches, federates with the 'verse, everything works well and actually seems hunky-dory. Even companies/restaurants/officials that use a Facebook page might be accessible via federation!
- Threads starts allowing their users to embed and interact with content from Facebook, Instagram, & possibly WhatsApp using Threads. Federated communities will be able to embed some of that content as well. Also, InstaWhatsBook users will be able to link to Threads posts as well.
- Sooner or later, embedded content from the Meta's 'verse will encourage and eventually require you to be signed into Meta. This will be for the "security" and "privacy" of Meta users. But don't worry, you'll simply be able to link your federated instance's account to a Meta account real easy, and even keep your credentials & karma status synced as well!
- Eventually posts from Threads users will be restricted even further and you'll have to visit their site in order to "securely" view that content. Don't worry though, you synced your account before so it's not really an issue to just hop over.
- People get tired of having to hop over to Threads for most posts, and since their credentials are synced to both, it doesn't really hurt to just stay on Threads and view federated posts from there.
- Meta changes the nature of their karma system so not everything syncs anymore. Of course you get the most benefit if you're posting on Threads.
- Meta finally decides that federating "just isn't in their best interest" and shuts down federation, leaving a husk of the Fediverse behind.
They problem is even if they're defederated they have the advertising to entice people to come to them. Susie FINALLY gets on the Fediverse ... but wait ... why can't she see Jill's posts? OH! Jill is on Mastodon. Well Jill, come hang out with Susie, it's the SAME network, but your admin is just being MEAN to your friend Susie! Jill feels pressured and moves to Threads. Another one bites the dust.
Yeah.. I just want to try to keep a modicum of hope that things won't fall apart like xmpp for instance..
Only way it can survive is if people decide to keep it going. With supposedly 2 million sign ups in 2 hours that might be a difficult sell. I'm just hopeful that folks, like myself, care enough to stay away and even if the Fediverse loses a lot of folks it can continue on. We don't need, and imo want, everyone. We just want a place we can be ourselves without being a product.
Threads is more of a Mastodon/Twitter thing, right?
I might not impact Lemmy and kbin too mouch as it might Mastodon? Different platforms after all.
I for one never really clicked with neither Twitter nor Mastodon, I prefer the threadiverse so it won't interest me much.
It's all built on ActivityPub. They're different formats to consume the same data essentially. You can be on Mastodon and follow and comment on Lemmy posts.
True but not quote as much in the other direction. Kbin has some possibilities for that but not lemmt AFAIK?