this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2023
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Technology
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If I'm being honest 1st of July will most likely be the last big splash and the last big grow for the alternative platforms. Afterwards I don't think the growth of Lemmy or similar platforms will be as big. Most of the mods will be silenced, subs opened and in 1-2 weeks it will be forgotten.
Reddit is way bigger than Digg was back then, has an impressive number of users so it's pretty hard to bring it to its knees. I hope I am wrong and that I am just pessimistic.
However I think the bad part for Reddit is that knowledgeable people and people you can hold a discussion with or to ask for help in different areas, are leaving/have left Reddit so the quality of posts will dilute.
It will definitely be a slow death. The sound of a few engaged users uniting in protest isn't what will scare Reddit. The sound that will scare them is the sound of many casual users going "Meh" when minimally-moderated subs plagued with spammers and repost bots finally bore the doom-scrolling zombies looking for a momentary dopamine rush from Tik-Tok videos and easily digestible memes.
Sounds hard to bore someone like that. Vapidity culture doing work means content producers don't have to :-\ Maybe won't be hard to keep some (many?) Reddit remainers amused with a handful of chat or repost bots.
If the more engaged posters have moved over, do we really need the lurkers and mediocre posters to prop up the new discussion locations?
It was nice having everything in one place, but if everyone came over then it would just be the same thing on a new platform.
Yeah I really don't want everyone or even a large percentage of reddit to migrate over here. Leave the trash behind. The users here are way less hostile and problematic
Subs opened... with who moderating?
Reddit has no fucking backup plan if the mods decide to bail. What happens? Communities go unmoderated, or randos take over which is even WORSE since randos bring about the possibility of the sub being shat up on purpose.
And note that many subs have trouble recruiting moderators even when they want more people.
I can't speak for anyone else, but I haven't been back to reddit since the blackouts started. No desire to.
You're not alone.
Reddit's big and recognisable enough at this point that I don't see it "dying" any time soon, but it's certainly possible that this situation can result in some serious issues for their future growth potential and user activity. If a meaningful percentage of the site's most engaged users (the ones posting the content people come for) leaves or cuts back their usage, and the moderation on subreddits deteriorates as a result of the available moderation tools getting worse, Reddit might find its valuation moving in the wrong direction.
Just because we're unlikely to kill Reddit doesn't mean we can't affect the thing Spez and company are interested in - that IPO money. If the site becomes a Tumblr-esque wasteland of repost bots, AI-generated spam comments and OnlyFans sellers, it's a lot less appealing to users than when it was a real, living website with engaging content. And if users are on average less engaged, would-be investors are going to see that and pause. Remember that Reddit's taking its notes from Musk's handling of Twitter here - and Twitter still isn't any closer to profitability than it was when he took over.
Keep in mind that Digg is around to this day. These actions won't sink Reddit overnight. And Reddit isn't done cleaning up for the IPO. As they do more and more of these prep actions, more users will bleed out. Hopefully the Fediverse gets more and more traffic to be a place other users look towards.
I agree with the alternate platform growth slowing down after next week.
I do think that Reddit has never had to deal with the consequences of a hard-to-use website and app before. People are not very tolerant of this. I think a lot of people are going to try to use the official app in the next few days, then delete it in disgust and find something else to do. They won't be checking in weekly to find out if it got better.