this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2023
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It's a replacement effect, adding one more counter to the existing effect, not creating a new effect that adds an additional counter. Keywords here are "if" and "instead".
TL;DR - 3 Counters, not 4
+1
With replacement effects the affected player chooses which of all applicable replacement effects to apply first, then after applying that they check if any others need to be applied. Once there are no more applicable replacement effects the modified effect happens.
Thank you! I wasn't thinking of it as a replacement effect, but that makes it very clear.