this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2023
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Reddit Migration
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Facebook is nowhere near as dead as you think it is. It is still the best place for local groups and many niche hobbyist groups. I really don't want reddit to be another version of that, 1 crappy social site is enough. Also you're missing a key differentiating factor: facebook has actual paid content moderators.
I don't think reddit will die, at least not right away (remember, digg shut down finally in 2018).
Best case scenario is they hemorrhage users, fail ipo, and then join the fediverse. I say this because joining will create a bridge for new users to come here.
Worst case scenario is they become like twitter. which is possible.
My money is on them trying to sell to Microsoft or Google for ai training, and keeping their api private.
You're making a great point about Facebook. It's still insanely popular among older and more rural Americans. I guess these are populations that would be more isolated without it and still see the value in participating. One example: I have a 21 year old niece who is on it 24/7, but then again she is a hour's drive from the nearest Walmart and and her parents. Three hundred miles from her bestie. She's two-thousand-ish miles away from me. She has my number, but she prefers Messenger to text.
It's also good for community groups, online garage sales, in memoriam pages, and the like. Some businesses like to use it instead of having a proper website, probably due to zero cost of hosting and familiarity of use.*
Reddit never fit naturally with any of those, but I'm sure it will find a niche of users in the same way.
*I'm sure there are other dynamics worldwide where Facebook might also be a valuable tool. These are just the first few examples I can think of in the US.