Russia has turned increasingly to blackmail and financial incentives to hire Germans to spy for it after the blow dealt to its intelligence services by Europe's expulsion of some 600 Russian diplomats, Germany's domestic security service said.

The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) said Russian intelligence services were spending big to recruit agents in Germany despite Western attempts to limit their operations since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. "Russia is working hard to compensate for the German government's reduction in the number of Russian agents in Germany," BfV chief Thomas Haldenwang told a news conference upon presenting the agency's annual report.

Two German citizens who were charged last August with high treason for spying for Russia had each been paid an estimated 400,000 euros ($428,560) for their services, the BfV said.

"The agent fees show that Russia's services continue to have enormous financial resources with which to pursue their intelligence goals," it added in the report.

Particularly at risk of being targeted by Russian security services were Germans who lived in Russia or regularly travelled there, including German diplomats, who could easily be made vulnerable to blackmail attempts.

"As soon as they have compromising information about their targets, these services are not shy about employing aggressive recruitment techniques," they added.

NATO reaffirmed this month its concerns about Russian espionage and called for tougher action in response to what it said was a campaign of hostile activities, including sabotage and cyber attacks. Germany is one of 32 NATO states.

Far right

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, was a rude awakening for many in Germany's security establishment after years in which Berlin had attempted to bind Moscow into the international legal order through a web of trade and especially energy links.

A recent surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the authoritarian-left BSW party has also helped trigger a major rethink. Both parties often echo Kremlin talking points on the war, including in their opposition to providing Ukraine with arms to defend itself.

The number of right-wing and left-wing extremists rose once more last year by 4.6% and 1.4% respectively to 40,600 and 37,000, according to the BfV report, contributing to public discourse moving away from factual debate towards "aggressive confrontation".

Russia has proved adaptable in finding ways of influencing events in Germany even after its media channels were banned and 600 of its diplomats stationed around Europe were expelled, the BfV said.

Some of those influencing efforts have shifted to the social media platform Telegram, which is difficult to police, while spies are now being attached to international organisations. Russian officers tasked with handling informants are now travelling to do so rather than being based in Germany.

Far-right groups are also a receptive audience for Russian influence operations. These include the Reichsbuerger (Citizens of the Reich) conspiracy theorists, some of whom are now on trial for plotting a coup against the German democratic order for which they had sought Russian support.

Among new conspiracies circulating in far-right circles, the BfV said, is a groundless belief that the war in Ukraine is intended to create a depopulated wasteland in the country's east to which the population of Israel could be relocated. It said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, being Jewish, was falsely presented as being one of the conspirators.

- In response to the EU's tariffs on EV, China announced an anti-dumping probe on pork imports from the European Union. But at less than $2 billion last year, pork accounts for a tiny sliver of the trade between the EU and China, which topped $280 billion in 2023.

- So why is China going after a sector that, economically, matters so little? Politics.

- Beijing is deploying a playbook it has used in previous trade skirmishes with Europe, the US and Australia. By targeting agriculture, the soft (pork) belly of Europe, China tries to keep the conflict contained and leverages the outsized influence of Europe’s farming lobby.

- Beijing obviously hopes that EU nations would now pressure Brussels into softening the EV tariffs before they’re officially imposed July 4. However, EU nations should avoid playing into China’s hands.--

Growing up in Spain, where the farming sector is a powerhouse, the wars I lived through were named for food: the “strawberry war” with the French in 1989, the “tuna war” with the British in 1990, and the “turbot war” with the Canadians in 1995. Still, nothing prepared me for what’s shaping up to be the “ham war” with China.

On Monday, Beijing announced an anti-dumping probe on pork imports from the European Union, a first step toward tariffs. The probe came less than a week after Brussels announced it would impose duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles as high as 50%, saying they benefited from “unfair subsidisation.”

Spain is, by far, the largest pork exporter into China, whose taste for the nation’s succulent (and expensive) Iberico ham has become increasingly fashionable. The Netherlands, Denmark, France, Belgium and Germany are also significant exporters.

But at less than $2 billion last year, pork accounts for a tiny sliver of the trade between the EU and China, which topped $280 billion in 2023. So why is China going after a sector that, economically, matters so little? Politics.

Beijing is deploying a playbook it has used in previous trade skirmishes with Europe, the US and Australia. By targeting agriculture, the soft (pork) belly of Europe, China achieves two objectives: It keeps the conflict contained and leverages the outsized influence of Europe’s farming lobby.

Beijing obviously hopes that EU nations would now pressure Brussels into softening the EV tariffs before they’re officially imposed July 4. Germany was already unhappy with the duties, fearing for its own car sales in China; Spain and France, which appeared undecided, could join Berlin against Brussels.

However, EU nations can avoid playing into China’s hands. Take Spain, where pork can make headlines in news bulletins and the quality of meat is a source of national pride. Last year, Spain exported €12.2 billion in meat, including not only pork, but also beef and poultry, to every nation in the world. But during the same period, its exports of automobiles, motorbikes and car components reached nearly €54 billion. It’s clear what sector matters the most economically.

Then, consider that Spain has no rival in China when it comes to high-end pork, but Spain and China are competing in the very same segment in the car industry: small, cheap cars for the growing ranks of the world’s working and middle classes. Spain has so far focused on gasoline- and diesel-powered cars, while the Chinese are leading on electric ones. Without tariff protection, it’s unlikely that Spain would be able to switch from gasoline into electric cars, and without that switch, its car industry would slowly die.

China has used the local farmers of its trade antagonist for its own benefit before: It pressured Australia by targeting its farm exports, including barley, beef, wine and lobsters, and it tried to force the hand of the US by restricting the soybean trade. The farming lobby is particularly strong in Brussels. After all, autoworkers don’t take their cars to the center of Brussels as farmers do with their tractors when they need to protest government policy.

China also knows that its imports of European pork, particularly of low-value-added meat, is going to decline as its pig herd grows again to meet local demand, which the Europeans also know and are braced for.

European nations should play their cards carefully. China has opened a window for negotiation. Its probe into European pork exports is likely to last six months, potentially a year, leaving plenty of time for talks. In that vein, its response to Brussels isn’t the start of a trade war, but rather the beginning of prewar talks. Both sides can find a solution.

Ultimately, Europe shouldn’t trade off its multibillion-euro car industry to content its politically active farmers. Agricultural exports are important, but they are more valuable for sentimental reasons than for economic impact. Put your mind in the euro value alone, however, and cars win – by a long mile. That should be the focus in Brussels, and in Madrid, Paris, Amsterdam and Copenhagen.

Tony Sinclair had worked all his life – but still found himself sleeping rough. Then even his tent was taken away from him.

In a way, 70-year-old Tony Sinclair was lucky to be in his tent on the day last year when the police arrived. The canvas that kept him from the elements ended up in the bin, but, unlike several of his neighbours, he was able to save his most important possessions from going the same way.

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• There is broad consensus that the shadow fleet is an international problem and that international solutions are required, Norway says.
• Since Western nations imposed a price cap on Russia's oil in an attempt to curb vital funds for its war in Ukraine, Russia has increasingly relied on a fleet of often ageing tankers based and insured outside the West.
• Russia's protested, saying that unimpeded passage of ships through Danish waters was guaranteed by the Copenhagen Treaty of 1857.

Denmark is considering ways to stop a so-called shadow fleet of tankers from carrying Russian oil through the Baltic Sea, the Nordic country said on Monday, triggering a sharp response from Moscow's diplomats who said any such move would be unacceptable.

Russia sends about a third of its seaborne oil exports, or 1.5% of global supply, through the Danish straits that sit as a gateway to the Baltic Sea, so any attempt to halt supplies could send oil prices higher and hit the Kremlin's finances.

Since Western nations imposed a price cap on Russia's oil in an attempt to curb vital funds for its war in Ukraine, Russia has relied on a fleet of often ageing tankers based and insured outside the West.

Denmark has brought together a group of allied countries to evaluate measures that would target this fleet, Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told Reuters in an emailed statement.

He did not say what measures were being considered.

"There is broad consensus that the shadow fleet is an international problem and that international solutions are required," Lokke Rasmussen said.

"It's important that any new measures can be implemented in practice and that they are legally sound with regards to international law," he added.

Countries involved in the talks included other Baltic Sea states and European Union members, the minister said.

Imposing restrictions on ships passing through the straits would be unacceptable, Russia's ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, told Reuters.

"The threat to the safety of navigation and the marine environment in the Baltic Sea are not the tankers with Russian oil, but the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia," Barbin said.

"This is what the coalition of states established at Denmark's initiative should be thinking about," he added.

The unimpeded passage of ships through Danish waters was guaranteed by the Copenhagen Treaty of 1857, which remains valid and legally binding, the ambassador said.

Denmark is concerned that old tankers transporting oil through its straits represent a potential danger to the environment.

The patchwork plains of Castilla-La Mancha, in central Spain, were once known for their windmills.

But now it is wind turbines, their modern-day equivalent, which are much more visible on the region’s skyline.

The 28 vast turbines of the Sierra del Romeral windfarm, perched on hills not far from the historic city of Toledo, look out over this landscape.

Operated by Spanish firm Iberdrola, they are part of a trend that has accelerated Spain’s renewable energy output over the past half-decade, making the country a major presence in the industry.

Spain’s total wind generation capacity, its prime renewable source in recent years, has doubled since 2008. Solar energy capacity, meanwhile, has increased by a factor of eight over the same period.

This makes Spain the EU member state with the second-largest renewable energy infrastructure, after Sweden in first place.

Earlier this year, Spain's Socialist Workers' Party prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, described his country as "a driving force of the energy transition on a global scale".

The boom began soon after the arrival of a new government under Mr Sánchez in 2018, with the removal of regulatory obstacles, and the introduction of subsidies for renewable installation. The pandemic further accelerated the trend on a domestic level.

"The impact of Covid was very positive for our sector," says José Donoso, chief executive of UNEF, the Spanish Photovoltaic Association, which represents the solar panel sector. "People saved money, took time to think about what to do with it, and many of them decided that it was better invested on their roof than in their bank."

Meanwhile, the government introduced ambitious new targets, including covering 81% of Spain’s electricity needs with renewables by 2030.

However, behind this success story, there are concerns within the electricity industry caused by an imbalance between supply and demand with, at times, a surplus of electricity.

Even though the Spanish economy has bounced back strongly from the trauma of the Covid pandemic, and is growing faster than all of the bloc’s other big economies, electricity consumption has been dropping in recent years.

Last year, demand for electricity was even below that seen in the pandemic year 2020, and the lowest since 2003.

"What we saw until 2005 was that when GDP increased, demand for electricity increased more than GDP," says Miguel de la Torre Rodríguez, head of system development at Red Eléctrica (REE), the company that operates Spain's national grid.

More recently, he says, "we've seen that demand has increased less than GDP. What we're seeing is a decoupling of energy intensity from the economy".

There are several reasons for the recent drop in demand. They include the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which caused businesses and homes across Europe to cut back on usage.

Also, energy efficiency has improved and become more commonplace.

The increased usage of renewable energy has also contributed to the reduction in demand for electricity from the national grid.

Mr Rodríguez says that during daylight hours, when solar energy output is particularly strong, the supply-demand balance can be pushed out of kilter, having an impact on prices.

"Since the power system always has to have an equilibrium – demand has to equal generation – that has meant there has been excess generation during those hours," he says.

"That has driven prices down, especially during certain hours, when the prices have been zero or even negative."

While such low prices are welcome for consumers, they are potentially a problem when it comes to attracting investment to the industry.

"This can make it more difficult for investors to increase their investment in new electricity based on renewable energies," says Sara Pizzinato, a renewable energy expert at Greenpeace Spain.

"That can be a bottleneck for the energy transition."

Concerns about Spain having an excess of electricity have led to discussion of the need to accelerate the "electrification" of the economy, which involves moving it away from fossil fuels. The Sánchez government has set a target of making 34% of the economy reliant on electricity by 2030.

"This process is going slowly, and we need to accelerate it," says UNEF’s José Donoso.

"Electricity is the cheapest and most competitive way to produce clean energy.

"We need facilities that use electricity in place of fossil fuels."

Shifting to a total reliance on electricity is seen as unrealistic, as some important sectors like chemicals and metals will find the transition difficult.

However, Mr Donoso and others see plenty of scope for swifter electrification. For example, Spain is trailing many of its European neighbours when it comes to the installation of heat pumps in homes, and the use of electric cars, which only make up around 6% of vehicles on the road.

Ms Pizzinato agrees that electrification is crucial, but says there are other ways of tackling the supply-demand quandary, including phasing out the use of nuclear plants more quickly, and increasing energy storage capability.

She says: "We need to engage more people and more industries in demand-side management, to make sure the flexibility needed in the system is out there to make generation and demand match better during the day and during the night."

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- Inflation is rising in Russia. At the same time, banks are increasingly denying citizens’ loan applications. As a result, Russians are turning more and more to payday lenders to buy basic necessities like food and clothing — and this doesn’t bode well for the country’s economy. - Payday loans in Russia are capped at one million rubles (about $11,250) and generally have a repayment period of between one week and 60 days. Interest rates for these loans are high, averaging at about 0.5–0.8 percent per day, or up to 292 percent per year. - Currently, the average monthly income of Russians applying for payday loans is 50,000 rubles, or about $562, while the average size of these loans is 9,990 rubles ($112). Economists say that Russians are aggressively taking out loans and payday loans, despite the fact that interest rates are rising faster than incomes. - More than 12,000 people initiated a simplified, 'out-of-court' bankruptcy process process in the first quarter of 2024 — more than five times the number of people who did so in the same period the previous year. The number of judicial bankruptcies rose by 18.2 percent to 89,800 over the same period.--

Journalists from the independent Russian outlet Holod spoke to two economists and a lawyer about how Russia’s payday loan services work and what their rise could bring in the future. Meduza shares an English-language summary of their reporting.

In 2023, Russians took out a record-breaking one trillion rubles (approximately $11.2 billion) in payday loans — 30% more than in 2022. Some experts predict that this figure could increase again by as much as 25 percent in 2024. By the end of 2023, the number of Russians using “microfinance organizations” (MFOs) had reached 19.9 million, which is 2.7 million more than in the previous year. And as of the end of the first quarter of 2024, about 32 percent of these loans were overdue.

Payday loans in Russia are capped at one million rubles (about $11,250) and generally have a repayment period of between one week and 60 days. Interest rates for these loans are high, averaging at about 0.5–0.8 percent per day, or up to 292 percent per year. They can be secured easily and quickly both online and offline, with applications often processed in less than an hour and money often disbursed on the same day. Traditional bank loans, in contrast, can take several days to process, and the refusal rate from Russian banks reached 80 percent in October of last year.

Currently, the average monthly income of Russians applying for payday loans is 50,000 rubles, or about $562, while the average size of these loans is 9,990 rubles ($112). In general, Russians turn to payday loans to purchase food and clothing as well as to pay off older loans, economist Nikolai Kulbak told Holod. Most people who use payday loans in Russia use them more than once: in 2023, about 83.4 percent of payday loan recipients were repeat customers.

A house of cards

According to economist Yevgeny Nadorshin, the current rate of growth of the payday lending industry in Russia is a bad sign for the health of the Russian economy. He told Holod:

Russians are aggressively taking out loans and payday loans, despite the fact that interest rates are rising faster than incomes. The country’s economy is currently growing not from import substitution or investments but due to a rise in consumer demand that’s being fueled by loans. This kind of economic growth can’t be sustained for long. Its slowdown or even decline are the most likely scenarios for the future.

According to Nadorshin, MFOs currently have a greater impact on the market than banks do. “This is due to the tightening of credit policies and the increase of the key interest rate, which affects the interest rate at which banks lend money,” he explained. “As a result, MFOs have seen an additional influx of clients, which has enabled them to set a new record in loan volumes. According to data from the Central Bank, some of the people who took out payday loans in the first quarter of 2024 had previously obtained bank loans.”

Kulbak told Holod he also expects to see a continued rise in the number of payday loans being issued in Russia. “Banks used to give loans even to clients who were already devoting most of their income to paying off existing loans; now they’re increasingly refusing people,” he said, adding that he expects the trend to persist for the next six months since inflation does not seem to be slowing down. “The fewer loans banks approve, the more people turn to MFOs. Ultimately, this leads to an increase in bankruptcies,” said the economist.

A vicious cycle

MFOs in Russia often bundle their loans with other services, from text message notifications to life insurance and legal consultations. The cost of these services can be as high as the loan amount itself and also incurs interest.

Defaulting on payments of these fees can lead to penalties, legal proceedings, and damage to one’s credit history. “If you stop making payments, interest and penalties will start accruing in addition to the principal debt,” lawyer Filipp Pokrovsky told Holod. “According to [Russian] law, the sum of fines and interest on contracts lasting less than one year cannot exceed 130 percent of the principal debt, meaning that for a loan of 10,000 rubles, MFOs can demand repayment of up to 23,000 rubles.”

One of the main risks that MFO clients face is the accumulation of multiple loans. “When a person starts extending their debts, it can turn into a vicious cycle: they’re compelled to take out additional payday loans to settle previous ones,” Pokrovsky explained.

In addition to the traditional personal bankruptcy process, Russian law allows certain categories of the population, such as pensioners, to go through a simplified, out-of-court bankruptcy process. More than 12,000 people initiated this process in the first quarter of 2024 — more than five times the number of people who did so in the same period the previous year. The number of judicial bankruptcies rose by 18.2 percent to 89,800 over the same period.

Since Russia first gave individuals the right to file for bankruptcy in 2015, over a million Russians have declared themselves insolvent.

Here's Mr. Stoltenberg's statement in a video (1 min)

The head of Nato has told the BBC that China should face consequences for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine, if it does not change its ways.

Jens Stoltenberg said Beijing was "trying to get it both ways" by supporting Russia's war effort, while also trying to maintain relationships with European allies.

"This cannot work in the long run," Mr Stoltenberg told BBC News during a visit to Washington.

In the wide ranging interview, Mr Stoltenberg also addressed nuclear weapons and defence spending.

His comments come as Russia shows no sign of easing its war against Ukraine.

A peace summit held in Switzerland at the weekend saw dozens of nations commit to supporting Kyiv, but Russia called it a waste of time and said it would only agree to peace talks if Ukraine essentially surrendered.

When pressed on what Nato members might do about China's support of Russia, Mr Stoltenberg said there was an "ongoing conversation" about possible sanctions.

He said China was "sharing a lot of technologies, [like] micro-electronics, which are key for Russia to build missiles, weapons they use against Ukraine".

He added that "at some stage, we should consider some kind of economic cost if China doesn't change their behaviour".

Beijing is already under some sanctions for its support of Russia - last month, the US announced restrictions that would target about 20 firms based in China and Hong Kong.

China has defended its business with Moscow, saying it is not selling lethal arms and "prudently handles the export of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations".

Mr Stoltenberg's visit to Washington came as the Kremlin confirmed that Vladimir Putin will travel to North Korea on Tuesday.

It follows his visit to China last month.

Russia has become increasingly isolated on the world stage since it launched its full-scale war with Ukraine in 2022. Mr Putin has repeatedly said that the West's balance of power is shifting, and he has worked to strengthen ties with like-minded leaders.

"Russia right now is aligning more and more with authoritarian leaders," Mr Stoltenberg told the BBC, listing Iran, Beijing and North Korea.

He said that the North has sent artillery shells to Russia, and in return Russia had given advanced technology for North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes.

"So North Korea is helping Russia to conduct a war of aggression against Ukraine."

Speaking ahead of a meeting with US President Joe Biden, the Nato chief also announced that more than 20 nations are expected to meet a defence spending target of 2% this year - more than any other year since it was pledged in 2014.

"This is good for Europe and good for America, especially since much of this extra money is spent here in the United States," he said.

Mr Stoltenberg also addressed comments that he made to the Telegraph on Sunday which indicated that Nato may be considering increasing the number of deployable warheads as a deterrent against growing threats from Russia and China.

The comments were criticised as "nothing but another escalation of tension" by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

But Mr Stoltenberg said they were a "general message" that Nato is a nuclear alliance, and that any attack on a Nato member will "trigger a response from the whole alliance".

"The purpose of Nato is not to fight the war, the purpose of that is to prevent the war," he said.

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Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago, thousands of Ukrainian infants have been forcibly taken to Russia to give them up for forced adoption. Behind this horrifying human trafficking operation stands the Kremlin, specifically Putin ally Maria Lvova-Belova.

Abducted Ukrainian children's documents are changed to Russian ones, they are adopted while having living relatives in Ukraine, and international organizations are prevented from helping these children return home.

One example was reported by the British BBC. Sergei Mironov, the 70-year-old leader of a Russian political party, and his wife, Inna Varlamova, deported an orphanage in the Kherson region in the fall of 2022 and forcibly adopted a 10 month old girl.. The child, originally named Margarita, was one of 48 who went missing from Kherson Regional Children's Home when Russian forces took control of the city.

Now, Russia is set to 'legislate' its crime against humanity. Anna Kuznetsova, Deputy Chair of the Russian State Duma, said that Russia has prepared 64 proposals and recommendations "aimed to expanding messures to support social services and the resocialization of children [and] protect minors from crimes by foreign states [and] the regime in Kyiv". In other words: Russia officially denies the legal guardians of forcibly deported and adopted Ukrainian children and attempts to prevent the opportunity to repatriate these children.

Here is a video (2 min) of Ms. Kuznetsova's announcment in the Duma, Russia's parliament.

Archived link

- A new petition started last week in Ukraine that aims to block TikTok in the country, arguing that its Chinese parent company Byte Dance is one of Russia’s partners and could pose a risk to Ukraine’s national security.

- The petition says that Chinese law allows companies to collect information about TikTok users that can subsequently be used for espionage and intelligence purposes, and that it would allow China to spread propaganda messages or launch algorithm-driven disinformation campaigns.

- The petition garnered about 9,000 signatures in the campaign’s first two days, and as of this article’s publication, it has nearly 11,000 supporters. To be officially considered by Ukrainian lawmakers, the document must receive a total of 25,000 signatures within three months.--

On June 10, a petition appeared on the website of Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers calling on the country’s authorities to block the video-sharing app TikTok. The document has already gathered nearly half of the signatures necessary for lawmakers to be required to consider it. It argues that because TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, is Chinese, and China is one of Russia’s partners, the app could pose a threat to Ukraine’s national security. The initiative comes just two months after Washington gave the Chinese firm an ultimatum, giving it nine months to sell TikTok to an American company if it wants to avoid a block in the U.S. Here’s what we know about the campaign to ban TikTok in Ukraine.

A new petition published on the Ukrainian government’s website calls on the country’s lawmakers to block TikTok for the sake of national security. The document asserts that China openly collaborates with Russia and supports it in its war against Ukraine. It also says that Chinese law allows companies to collect information about TikTok users that can subsequently be used for espionage and intelligence purposes. Additionally, the author says that China has the ability to influence ByteDance’s content policy, including by using TikTok to spread propaganda messages or launch algorithm-driven disinformation campaigns.

The petition cites comments made by U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb about how China has purportedly used its cyber capabilities to steal confidential information from both public and private U.S. institutions, including its defense industrial base, for decades. It proposes blocking TikTok on Ukrainian territories and banning its use on phones belonging to state officials and military personnel.

The signature collection period for the petition began on June 10. The document’s author is listed as “Oksana Andrusyak,” though this person’s identity is unclear, and Ukrainian media have had difficulty determining who she is. Nonetheless, the petition garnered about 9,000 signatures in the campaign’s first two days, and as of this article’s publication, it has nearly 11,000 supporters. To be officially considered by Ukrainian lawmakers, the document must receive a total of 25,000 signatures within three months.

This isn’t the first time the Ukrainian authorities have discussed banning TikTok. In April 2024, people’s deputy Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, the head of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Freedom of Speech, said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine that such a ban would be well-founded. “If our partner country imposes such sanctions, then so will we,” he told journalists, referring to the possibility of a TikTok ban in the U.S.

It’s currently unclear whether Ukrainian lawmakers already have plans to block TikTok. According to Forbes Ukraine, however, there is legislation in development that would impose new regulations on social media sites and messenger services, including TikTok.

Original article behind paywall

Adidas has launched an investigation into allegations of large-scale bribery in China after the company received a whistleblower complaint that accused senior staff of embezzling "millions of euros", the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The anonymous letter, which claims to have been written by "employees of Adidas China", names several Chinese Adidas employees including a senior manager involved with the marketing budget in the country, which the document said stood at 250 million euros ($267.5 million) a year, the FT reported.

Adidas confirmed that it had received an anonymous letter on June 7 indicating potential compliance violations in China. The German sportswear company said it was investigating this matter together with external legal counsel.

"Adidas takes allegations of possible compliance violations very seriously and is clearly committed to complying with legal and internal regulations and ethical standards in all markets where we operate," it said in a statement issued in response to a Reuters query. Adidas said it could not provide further information until the investigation was completed.

According to the FT, the letter alleges that Adidas staff received kickbacks from external service providers who were commissioned by the company that include "millions in cash from suppliers, and physical items such as real estate". China sales of the German sportswear giant grew by 8% in the first-quarter, the company reported earlier.

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The Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a note to Russian diplomats refusing to issue visas for the entire Russian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly session of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

The reason for the refusal was Russia's war against Ukraine. The session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly should be held in Bucharest at the end of June, Russian Senator Grigory Karasin said in his Telegram channel, but Russia received a note from the Romanian Foreign Ministry.

The document states that given the “Russian aggression against Ukraine,” none of the members of the Russian delegation will be issued a visa or allowed to enter the country.

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For over half a year, Russian companies have been facing difficulties in processing payments with China. Fearing secondary sanctions, banks are refusing to transfer funds, leaving importers unable to bring goods into the country. Vladimir Putin raised this issue during his visit to Beijing in May, but the situation doesn’t seem to have improved.

On December 22, 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order allowing sanctions to be imposed on banks from third countries if they are caught aiding the Russian military-industrial complex. Once blacklisted, these companies would be banned from holding correspondent accounts in American banks, meaning they’d be unable to conduct any dollar transactions. Following this order, dozens of Chinese financial organizations refused to accept transfers from Russia — not only in U.S. dollars but also in Chinese yuan.

On June 12 of this year, Washington tightened its demands. Previously, transactions involving five sectors of the Russian economy — technology, defense, construction, aerospace, and manufacturing — were under scrutiny. Now, the U.S. Treasury has expanded the definition of the military-industrial complex to include all companies previously sanctioned under Executive Order No. 14024. This means that the number of Russian entities that foreign banks must avoid to maintain access to dollar transactions has significantly increased. According to Castellum.AI, there are more than 4,000 such organizations.

Biden’s executive order — neither in its new nor old versions — has yet to be enforced against banks from third countries. So far, representatives of the U.S. administration have only issued verbal warnings: Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed “serious concern” about the supply of machines and microelectronics to Russia, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly mentioned the sanctions risk during her visit to China in early April.

This was enough to trigger significant shifts in trade between Russia and China. By the end of 2023, trade turnover had increased by 26 percent to a record $240 billion. However, in April 2024, China’s customs authority reported a 15 percent reduction in deliveries of cars, equipment, and other machinery. Bloomberg noted that exports to Russia fell for the first time in two years, linking this to sanctions risks. Chinese exports to Russia also fell in May, and Russian customs confirmed the continued decline of imports from Asia. Russia’s Central Bank acknowledged that it had become generally more difficult for Russian banks to open correspondent accounts abroad, even in “friendly” currencies, and directly linked this to “sanctions the United States adopted in December 2023.”

The issue was also discussed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Industry players reported that money transfers from Russia to China could take as long as three months, and even then might end up being returned to the sender. Businesses complained that they couldn’t even pay for theater decorations or children’s displays. Pavel Brun, the head of MasterProf, said his company hasn’t been able to arrange the supply of plumbing fixtures. “It’s like walking through a minefield,” he told Business FM.

Finding a workaround

Some hopes were pinned on Vladimir Putin’s mid-May visit to China. However, although Putin mentioned that the payment issue was discussed, he didn’t provide any specifics, and business owners confirmed that the difficulties in making payments persisted even after the delegation returned to Moscow.

A source in the trade industry told Reuters that the typical way Russian businessmen solve this problem is by going “from bank to bank, opening current accounts.” “If their payment doesn’t go through, they go to the next one,” the source explained. In response, Chinese financial institutions have started imposing additional requirements, such as asking for an office lease agreement in the province where the bank is located. “While this would have seemed like a harsh requirement before, we have no choice now,” business owners commented to Kommersant FM.

One of the most promising options was to open an account at the Chinese branch of the Russian bank VTB. The demand for this was so high that businesses were often left waiting as long as a year to open an account. VTB Bank CEO Andrey Kostin promised to more than double the staff to speed up this service. However, in its broadened interpretation of Russia’s military-industrial complex, the U.S. Treasury directly named VTB as one of the banned entities for transactions. This will likely complicate the bank’s operations.

As an alternative, businesses have started using banks in third countries as intermediaries, sending money through companies in Hong Kong, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the U.A.E., and other “friendly” jurisdictions, rather than directly from Russia, according to Reuters sources. This scheme can prove costly: intermediaries may charge a commission of several thousand dollars per transaction, they don’t guarantee success, and the sender will have trouble getting the money back if the payment fails. Goods may also be confiscated in the intermediary countries. Nevertheless, half of the payments are currently processed this way.

Some companies have started using cryptocurrency to make payments to China, specifically the stablecoin Tether, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar, reports Bloomberg. Instead of waiting months, payments are processed in 5-15 seconds, and without the hefty commissions intermediaries charge. However, there are risks for Chinese partners: since 2021, the local regulator has deemed all cryptocurrency transactions illegal. To circumvent these issues, an even more unorthodox solution has been devised: Russian steel companies are now bartering metal for any goods that Chinese businesses are willing to offer. This way, no cross-border financial transactions are needed at all. Both Russian customs and the Industry and Trade Ministry have noted the growing popularity of this bartering system.

If businesses still need to make monetary payments, they often turn to small rural banks in northeastern China. According to Reuters, these banks, located along the Russian border, are willing to accept transfers and have less stringent compliance requirements. However, due to high demand, even these banks have waiting lists to open an account that stretch for several months.

The System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) — Russia’s SWIFT analogue for domestic and international transactions — could potentially help. However, VTB has complained that too few foreign companies are currently connected to it. Additionally, the system was developed by the Central Bank, which deters non-residents from using it due to sanctions risks. And with good reason: Bloomberg pointed out that the E.U. and the G7 could jointly impose sanctions for connecting to the system.

Ripple effects

Paradoxically, the current payment issues are having a positive impact on the Russian economy. The inability to transfer money has hit imports, thereby reducing the demand for foreign currency. This supports the ruble exchange rate, as noted in the Central Bank in official reports. The bank doesn’t believe this factor will have a significant impact on GDP.

However, as Sofia Donets, the chief economist at Tinkoff Investments, told RBC, these problems will ultimately lead to additional costs for sellers. The Moscow-based investment company Tsifra Broker concurs that prices for many goods could rise if timely shipments can’t be ensured. Categories making up the largest share of Chinese exports to Russia are at risk: equipment, land transport vehicles, electrical machinery, and electrical equipment.

Currently, importers are complaining that fraudsters are trying to exploit the situation: they write to Russian entrepreneurs posing as Chinese partners and notify them of a change in banking details. There’s been at least one known case where a business ended up sending money to an account, only to find that they couldn’t reach the sender afterward and were left without the paid-for goods.

Some market participants believe that resolving the payment crisis will depend on how much banks can earn from conducting such operations. For instance, Anatoly Semenov, director of the Parallel Import Association, points out that so long as the markets of countries unfriendly to Russia are of interest to Chinese businesses, they won’t openly violate the sanctions regime and risk their investments. Banks in Turkey and the U.A.E. are also refusing transactions with Russia. Against this backdrop, The Bell estimates that imports from some countries have dropped by a third this year.

The Belgian Council presidency seems set to greenlight Chat Control on Wednesday 19 June.
This confirms fears: the proponents of Chat Control want to exploit the situation after the European Elections, in which there is less public attention and the European Parliament is not yet constituted.
If Chat Control makes it through the Council now, there is a risk that the Parliament in its new composition will not fight as fiercely as before and surrender our previous wins.

Timeline

On Thursday, 13 June, ministers were set to debate a progress report. (Find a recording here) The Belgian Council presidency announced that they will present a new compromise proposal afterwards. According to documents leaked by netzpolitik.org, the session to seek an agreement on it will already take place on Wednesday, 19 June.

European Union ambassadors agreed on Friday formally to start accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, the Belgian EU presidency said, adding this would take place at intergovernmental conferences on June 25.

Belgium, which holds the six-month rotating presidency of the EU, said on social media post X that the decision should be officially cleared by finance and economy ministers meeting next Friday.

Opening talks with the European Union would be a morale boost for Ukraine as Russia's forces are advancing in the Donetsk region and opening a new front in the northeastern region of Kharkiv.

The agreement means that Hungary has dropped for now its opposition to Ukraine's graduation to EU membership. Budapest, which has close ties to Moscow, has said it has doubts about European Commission's assessment that Ukraine is ready.

The Commission said a week ago that both countries met all the criteria for accession negotiations formally to begin.

The 27 EU members have to agree unanimously agree to start the negotiations, which take years to conclude.

Belgium and the Commission had been keen to get agreement before Hungary takes over the rotating presidency from July 1 for six months.

Kyiv applied for EU membership in the weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and it was granted candidate status four months later.

Archived link

Moldova's authorities and an opposition politician said Friday aviation officials had denied landing permission to a flight bound for the capital Chisinau carrying pro-Russian opposition activists.

According to Romanian authorities, the flight from Armenia was redirected to an airport near the capital Bucharest.

Moldovan pro-Russian MP Marina Tauber announced the incident in a post on Telegram.

"Chisinau airport refused to allow a flight from Moscow via Yerevan carrying participants in the congress of the Moldovan opposition political bloc 'Victory' to land," she wrote.

"The aircraft was diverted to Bucharest."

Low-cost carrier FlyOne failed to "notify [flight] schedule changes three days in advance as required by law," Moldova's Civil Aviation Authority said in a Facebook post Friday.

A source at Otopeni airport near Bucharest confirmed to AFP that an aircraft with 174 passengers on board landed there on Friday morning.

Once there, the plane was checked following a bomb threat that turned out to be a false alarm, the source added.

Videos posted by Tauber on Telegram showed passengers getting off the FlyOne flight for identity checks.

The incident came a day after the United States, Britain and Canada warned of a Russian "plot" to influence Moldova's presidential elections this autumn.

Their joint statement published on Thursday said they feared Moscow would "incite protests" if a pro-Russian candidate failed to win in the country.

In late April, Moldovan pro-Russian opposition parties gathered in Moscow to announce the formation of the "Victory" political bloc, ahead of the presidential elections and an EU membership referendum in October.

Moldova, led by pro-European President Maia Sandu, frequently accuses the Kremlin of interfering in its internal affairs.

Sandu has accused Moscow of trying to stoke tensions in the former Soviet republic of 2.6 million people.

In the run-up to the presidential election on October 20, in which Sandu is seeking a second term, the political situation has been especially tense.

Wedged between war-torn Ukraine and EU member Romania, Moldova has been an official candidate to join the European Union since June 2022, just months after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine.

Russian inflation accelerated in May to the highest in more than a year, adding to pressure on the central bank to hike the key rate to curb price growth.

Annual inflation reached 8.3% last month, from 7.84% in April, the highest since February last year, Federal Statistics Service data showed late Friday. Price growth jumped to 0.74% in monthly terms from 0.5% in April.

Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina last week warned of the possibility of a “significant” rate hike in July if inflationary pressures don’t start to ease. That came after the central bank held the rate at 16% for the fourth meeting in a row, as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to overheat the economy and stoke inflation.

With government spending on the rise, Nabiullina has been turning more hawkish as economic growth, local demand and price increases have consistently outpaced the central bank’s expectations. The bank said June 7 that it anticipates inflation will return to its 4% goal in 2025.

International Criminal Court (ICC) investigating alleged Russian cyberattacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as possible war crimes, sources say

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/icc-probes-cyberattacks-ukraine-possible-war-crimes-sources-2024-06-14

Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court are investigating alleged Russian cyberattacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as possible war crimes, four sources familiar with the case said.

It is the first confirmation that attacks in cyberspace are being investigated by international prosecutors, which could lead to arrest warrants if enough evidence is gathered.

The probe is examining attacks on infrastructure that endangered lives by disrupting power and water supplies, cutting connections to emergency responders or knocking out mobile data services that transmit air raid warnings, one official said.

ICC prosecutors are working alongside Ukrainian teams to investigate "cyberattacks committed from the beginning of the full-scale invasion" in February 2022, said the official, who declined to be named because the probe is not finished.

Two other sources close to the ICC prosecutor's office confirmed they were looking into cyberattacks in Ukraine and said they could go back as far as 2015, the year after Russia's seizure and unilateral annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.

Moscow has previously denied that it carries out cyberattacks, and officials have cast such accusations as attempts to incite anti-Russian sentiment.

Ukraine is collecting evidence to support the ICC prosecutor's investigation. The ICC prosecutor's office declined to comment on Friday, but has previously said it has jurisdiction to investigate cybercrimes. It has also said it cannot comment on matters related to ongoing investigations.

Russians accused of crimes against humanity

The court has issued four arrest warrants against senior Russian suspects since the beginning of the invasion. These include President Vladimir Putin, suspected of a war crime over the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Russia, which is not a member of the ICC, dismissed that decision as "null and void". Ukraine is also not a member, but has granted the ICC jurisdiction to prosecute crimes committed on its territory.

In April, a pre-trial chamber issued arrest warrants alleging that two Russian commanders had committed crimes against humanity with strikes against civilian infrastructure. The Russian defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment at the time.

At least four major attacks on energy infrastructure are being examined, two sources with knowledge of the investigation told Reuters.

A senior source said one group of Russian hackers in the ICC's crosshairs is known in cybersecurity research circles as "Sandworm", and is believed by Ukrainian officials and cyber experts to be linked to Russian military intelligence.

A team at the Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law, has been investigating Sandworm's cyberattacks targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure since 2021, and made confidential submissions to the ICC in 2022 and 2023 identifying five cyberattacks it said could be charged as war crimes.

Sandworm is suspected of a string of high-profile attacks, including a successful 2015 attack on a power grid in western Ukraine – one of the first of its kind, according to cybersecurity researchers.

A group of activist hackers calling themselves "Solntsepyok" ("hot spot") claimed responsibility for a major attack on the Ukrainian mobile telecommunications provider Kyivstar last Dec. 12. Ukrainian security services identified that group as a front for Sandworm.

Sandworm is also believed by Kyiv to have carried out extensive cyberespionage against Western governments on behalf of Russia's intelligence agencies.

Can a cyberattack be a war crime?

Cyberattacks that target industrial control systems, the technology that underpins much of the world's industrial infrastructure, are rare, but Russia is one of a small club of nations that possess the means to do so, the cybersecurity researchers said.

The ICC case, which could set a precedent for international law, is being closely followed.

The body of international law covering armed conflict, enshrined in the Geneva Conventions, bans attacks on civilian objects, but there is no universally accepted definition of what constitutes a cyber war crime.

Legal scholars in 2017 drafted a handbook called the Tallinn Manual on the application of international law to cyberwarfare and cyber operations.

But experts interviewed by Reuters say it is unclear whether data itself can be considered the "object" of an attack banned under international humanitarian law, and whether its destruction, which could be devastating for civilians, can be a war crime.

"If the court takes on this issue, that would create great clarity for us," said Professor Michael Schmitt of the University of Reading, who leads the Tallinn Manual process. Schmitt believes that the hack of Kyivstar, owned by the Dutch company Veon, meets the criteria to be defined as a war crime.

"You always look at the foreseeable consequences of your operation. And, you know, that was a foreseeable consequence that placed human beings at risk."

Ukraine's intelligence agency said it had provided details of the incident to ICC investigators in The Hague. Kyivstar said it was analysing the attack in partnership with international suppliers and the SBU, Ukraine's intelligence agency.

Norway’s prime minister signaled a hardening stance on China, pledging tighter cooperation with businesses on security risks linked to the Asian nation.

In his security policy statement to lawmakers in Oslo on Thursday, Jonas Gahr Store said China is the country “with the greatest capacity” for activity targeted at “undermining our interests and values.” While the premier highlighted the threats from neighboring Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he said Norwegians must pay more attention to risks when collaborating with China.

“Going forward, risk reduction will have to be part of our approach to China and Chinese actors,” Store said. “We want cooperation with China, in trade, climate, the green shift - to solve global problems. But it is not advisable in sensitive areas.”

The Norwegian government has so far struck a more cautious tone on China than many of its European counterparts, even as the country’s intelligence agencies have repeatedly warned about risks posed by China, including influence efforts focused on the Arctic.

Norway also harbors painful memories of China suspending ties with the Nordic nation for most of last decade after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded human rights advocate Liu Xiaobo the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010 for “his long and non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China.”

“We are now intensifying the dialogue with the business world, the knowledge sector and other social actors, about risks linked to cooperation with China and other countries,” Store said.

The United States, Britain and Canada accused Russia on Thursday of carrying out a plot to sway the outcome of the Moldovan presidential election in October and incite protests if a pro-Moscow candidate should lose.

Russia is working to exacerbate societal tensions and foment negative perceptions of the West and the incumbent team of Moldova's pro-Western President Maia Sandu through disinformation and online propaganda, they said in a statement issued by the State Department in Washington.

"We are taking this step to warn our democratic partners and allies that Russian actors are carrying out a plot to influence the outcomes of Moldova's fall 2024 presidential election," they said.

The plot, they said, is part of wider attempts by Moscow to subvert democratic elections to "secure results favorable to the Kremlin."

The threat is especially relevant this year as hundreds of million of voters in Europe and North America cast ballots in national, regional and local elections, the statement said.

The Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said on social media platform X that he was grateful for support from the three allies and vowed that the "Kremlin’s attempts to undermine our sovereignty and incite unrest will not succeed."

Moldova, a former Soviet republic of 2.5 million people, has fiercely condemned Russia's invasion of neighboring Ukraine, accused Moscow of plotting the Moldovan government's overthrow and expelled Russian diplomats.

Russia, the allies said, is backing presidential candidates in Moldova and unidentified pro-Russia actors are "actively using disinformation and propaganda online, on the air and on the streets to further their objectives."

These actors are fanning criticism of Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity to incite protests and plan to spread lies about her character and "supposed electoral irregularities."

The allies issued the statement a day after the United States imposed sanctions on Evgenia Gutul, the pro-Russia governor of Moldova's Gagauzia region.

Gutul faces criminal allegations of channelling funds from Russia to finance the now-banned Shor Party set up by Ilan Shor, an exiled pro-Russia businessman convicted of fraud in Moldova.

She denies the allegations as fabricated.

During a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Chisinau last month, Sandu accused the Kremlin of using criminal groups in Gagauzia to bring in Russian money to finance de-stabilizing activities and attempts "to bribe the elections."

In the joint statement, the allies said they shared Sandu's concerns that the Kremlin is using criminal groups to finance political activities.

Moscow's political interference, they said, dates back years, and they cited as an example "direct support" that employees of Russia's state-funded RT media network have provided to Shor.

- Kremlin hawk talks of need for harsh campaign against West - Ex-president Medvedev: Response needed against sanctions - Calls for Western society, infrastructure to be targeted - Western officials have accused Russia of sabotage - Moscow has publicly rejected those allegations

One of Russia's top security officials called on Thursday for Russians to mobilise to inflict "maximum harm" on Western societies and infrastructure as payback for increasingly tough sanctions being imposed on Moscow by the U.S. and its allies.

The statement by Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and Vladimir Putin's predecessor as president, came as the West sharply escalated sanctions on Moscow in efforts to degrade its ability to wage war in Ukraine.

"We need to (respond). Not only the authorities, the state, but all our people in general. After all, they - the U.S. and its crappy allies - have declared a war on us without rules!," Medvedev wrote on his official Telegram channel, which has over 1.3 million followers.

"Every day we should try to do maximum harm to those countries that have imposed these restrictions. Harm their economies, their institutions and their rulers. Harm the well-being of their citizens, their confidence in the future."

Diplomats say Medvedev gives a flavour of hardline and high level thinking in the Kremlin, though Kyiv and Kremlin critics play down his influence, casting him as a scaremonger whose job is to deter Western action over Ukraine.

In his latest comments he spoke of the need to find critical vulnerabilities in Western economies, to target energy, industry, transport, banking and social services, and to stir up social tensions.

Western officials have already spoken about suspected Russian sabotage activities across the West, including arson, with some calling for Russian diplomats' movements to be curbed.

The Kremlin, which said on Thursday it was considering retaliatory action against the U.S. that would best suit Moscow's own interests, and the Russian foreign ministry have rejected the sabotage allegations as false.

'Fake news'

Medvedev, who styled himself as a Western-friendly liberal during his 2008-12 presidency before reinventing himself as one of the Kremlin's toughest hawks, spoke of the need to step up an information war against the West.

"Are they screaming about our use of fake news? Let's turn their lives into a crazy nightmare in which they can't distinguish wild fiction from the realities of the day, infernal evil from the routine of life," he wrote.

Medvedev also called for Russia to weaponise space and arm the West's enemies, as the new U.S. sanctions forced Russia's leading exchange to halt dollar and euro trading, obscuring access to reliable pricing for the Russian currency.

The link contains also an version of the report in Ukrainian.

- 12-month comprehensive investigation finds Russian forces “intended to starve civilians as a method of warfare” in the battle for Mariupol.

- 450,000 civilians targeted by Russian assault on the City, cutting off all water, electricity and gas supply.

- Ukrainian civilians forced to drink from puddles, radiator batteries, and melt snow.

- Civilians exposed to plummeting -12.4°C temperatures by Russian attacks on city’s power.

- 90% of healthcare facilities and residential homes destroyed or damaged during siege.

- Russian forces indiscriminately bombed food distribution points, medical facilities, and agreed-upon humanitarian corridors.

- Attempts to provide humanitarian aid to encircled civilians denied.

- Report analyses over 1.5 billion square metres of satellite imagery, photographs, videos, official public statements, and other digital data.

- Report comprises information from the Ukrainian government and unseen photos from a Mariupol police officer present during the siege.

- Report forms part of a wider submission to the International Criminal Court.

-Report by international human rights foundation lands ahead of Global Peace Summit aimed at achieving peace in Ukraine from 15-16 June.

A new 81-page report by international human rights foundation Global Rights Compliance publishes evidence of Russian and pro-Russian forces using starvation as a method of warfare against Ukrainian civilians during their 85-day siege of Mariupol City in the South East of Ukraine, between February and May 2022.

‘The Hope Left Us’, produced by Global Rights Compliance’s Starvation Mobile Justice Team (SMJT) consisting of international lawyers, OSINT researchers, and arms and munitions experts, concludes a 12-month investigation and analysis on the battle for Mariupol.

The report finds evidence of a strategy by Russian sieging forces to deliberately attack and destroy critical civilian infrastructure, obstruct humanitarian evacuation corridors, and prevent the distribution of humanitarian aid to starving Ukrainians confined in the city.

Global Rights Compliance’s SMJT is part of the UK, EU and US-sponsored Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group (ACA), which was launched in response to the need of the Office of the Prosecutor General (OPG) to increase capacity to investigate and prosecute atrocity crimes perpetrated since the full-scale invasion by Russian forces in February 2022.

The investigation utilised cutting-edge open-source research, analysing over 1.5 billion square metres of satellite imagery, as well as photographs, videos, official public statements, and other digital data collected between May 2022 and February 2024. Thorough damage analysis involved the creation of a bespoke algorithm cross-referencing the damage identified by online mapping data and Weapons Ordnance Munitions and Explosives specialists, as well as Ukrainian governmental military experts.

The report focusses on the 85-day siege of Mariupol revealing evidence of systematic attacks by Russian forces against critical civilian infrastructure, including energy, water, food and distribution points, and healthcare infrastructure. These attacks crippled Mariupol civilians’ access to critical resources while wilfully impeding their access to aid and simultaneously denying them access to organised evacuation routes, part of a ruthless plan to starve the city’s population into submission.

This pattern of conduct, the report states, leaves experts to conclude that the starvation of civilians in Mariupol City by Russian forces was intentionally used as a method of warfare.

Mariupol was one of the first cities to come under Russian attack in the opening weeks of the 2022 invasion, with deliberate attacks against energy infrastructure documented by the report from as early as 27 February, when Russian forces struck a major powerline blacking out half of Mariupol city.

This was immediately followed by a four-day onslaught of shelling that fully cut power and gas to over 450,000 Ukrainian residents, exposing them to winter temperatures plummeting to -12.4°C. Water pumping stations were also neutralised, cutting off access to heating and drinking water, forcing civilians to melt snow for drinking water and in some cases radiator water or street puddles to avoid dehydration.

90% of healthcare facilities indispensable to civilian’s survival were damaged or destroyed during the siege, with all 19 of the city’s hospitals impacted by end of May 2022.

Russian forces often treated full city blocks as military targets, making no effort to mitigate risk to civilian life or objects, damaging and destroying 90% of Mariupol’s residential homes in the siege. In the midst of an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe, Ukrainians set up ‘distribution points’ across the city for basic necessities. However, these too came under attack, with at least 22 supermarkets damaged or destroyed despite being used for distribution.

One attack investigated by the SMJT was on the Neptun Swimming Pool Complex, despite satellite imagery showing the clear presence of hundreds of civilians queuing at this distribution point in the days immediately prior.

An attack on the same day on the Mariupol Drama Theatre, where several hundred people were residing, seemingly ignored clear lettering – ‘ДЕТИ’ (‘children’ in Russian) – written in front of the building. The SMJT’s analysis shows that this lettering was clearly visible from the altitude range from which Russian warplanes would have dropped the involved ammunition and unavoidable to surveying flights.

Seeking to justify these attacks, Russian authorities put forward a series of claims that these areas had been overtaken by Ukrainian forces. However, analysis by Global Rights Compliance of satellite imagery and videos posted to social media notes a lack of evidence of any legitimate military targets – soldiers, checkpoints, or equipment – present.

The report also finds that, throughout Russia’s siege, efforts to alleviate the suffering of civilians were severely obstructed, with agreed-upon evacuation routes and humanitarian corridors subjected to airstrikes and shelling. It finds that contrary to statements by representatives of the so-called ‘Donetsk People’s Republic,’ Ukrainian humanitarian aid was denied entry to the city. Where Russian aid was delivered, this was only to those supporting Russian occupation,with aid boxes branded: “We do not abandon our own”.

Evidence and analysis from ‘The Hope Left Us’ will form part of a larger dossier of starvation tactics used across Ukraine, which will be submitted to the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for further consideration.

Catriona Murdoch, Global Rights Compliance Vice President and Director of the Starvation and Humanitarian Crisis Division, said:

“The present report further captures the broader narrative of the siege through the patterned lens of attacks against objects indispensable to survival (OIS) of the civilian population – electricity, heating, drinking water, food, and medical care. It does so because – in the aggregate – the seemingly isolated attacks against OIS, when paired with associated violations and crimes related to the weaponisation of humanitarian aid, the denial of humanitarian access and humanitarian evacuations, filtration, and arrests of humanitarian actors, reveal a deliberately calculated method of warfare carried out by pro-Russian forces who intentionally employed several starvation tactics as a means to an end.

"I urge the International Criminal Court to consider these crimes and the collective punishment against innocent Ukrainian civilians, in pursuit of justice to Russian leadership, all the way up to the Kremlin.”

Yuriy Belousov, Head of the Department for Combating Crimes Committed in Conditions of Armed Conflict, Office of the General Prosecutor, said:

“There is no crime under the Rome Statute that was not committed by the Russian military during a full-scale invasion. Every day, investigators and prosecutors document the consequences of war crimes, as well as the testimony of victims and witnesses. In this regard, Mariupol is a vivid example of the policy of destruction of the city and its population by the Russian occupiers.

“To combat such crimes, we optimize the work of the Prosecutor General’s Office and strengthen the knowledge and skills of our prosecutors and investigators with the support of international partners. We are open to strengthening our cooperation to ensure that these and other war crimes are effectively investigated, and the perpetrators brought to justice. We are grateful to everyone involved in this process, because only by coordinating joint efforts will we be able to ensure the inevitability of punishment.”